Dawson Knox

TE · #49

BUF · TE · Age 29

FLEX

Dawson Knox's recent erratic usage signals a volatile role that limits his weekly upside despite being the primary receiver for Buffalo.

Role & volume

Knox has seen significant variance in snap share over his last four games, ranging from just 5% to 68%, indicating inconsistent usage patterns.

Projected role

As the primary receiver for Buffalo, Knox is expected to maintain a starting role but with unpredictable volume and target shares due to recent fluctuations.

Range (floor–ceiling)

Given his inconsistent usage, Knox's weekly range remains narrow, with a floor of 2 PPR points from a low-usage game and a ceiling around 18 PPR points in high-volume weeks.

Intel may be outdated · updated 44 days ago

Current statusBUF

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Buy-low — we value him above the market

Why

Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 29 · veteranTDs due to regress

Touchdown-luck regression

Our view vs Market↑ 35 pts above market

Our view

Market

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (2 flags)

Opportunity Flags

Depth Value
Kincaid's injury history means Knox remains the direct beneficiary if Kincaid misses time, giving Knox spot-start upside even in a diminished baseline role.
Contract Situation
The cap-friendly three-year extension signed in March 2026 locks Knox into the Bills' plans near-term, reducing displacement risk relative to a TE on an expiring deal.

Format Comparison

Dawson Knox — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	735	—
PPR SF	616	-119

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