Risk Flags
1- Usage & Volume
Woody Marks is ticketed for pass-catching work and the offensive coordinator has floated split-back packages, which caps Montgomery's receiving ceiling — his 2025 WOPR (0.09) and target share (6%) were already marginal.
David Montgomery
RB · #26HOU · RB · Age 29
START
David Montgomery's recent carry share of 29.6% in his last game with DET signals he can be a featured back, now poised for an expanded role on HOU.
Role & volume
Montgomery averaged a 30.5% snap share and a 29.6% carry share in his last four games with DET, indicating he was the primary ball carrier when active.
Projected role
With HOU, Montgomery is expected to be featured as a three-down back, given recent buzz and the team's head coach change that could open up more opportunities for him.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Montgomery's floor is set by his lowest PPR points in the last four games at 1.4, while his ceiling remains high as a RB23 on our value board, suggesting he can deliver top-25 RB production.
Intel may be outdated · updated 3 days ago
Current statusHOU
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionAverage carry shareAge 29 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↓ 13 pts below market
Our view
55
Market
68
Age-curve riskTD regression risk
Our own read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)
Opportunity Flags
2- Usage & Volume
The move to Houston (with no same-position draft capital added and a run-leaning offense, team PROE -5%) gives him a clear early-down/short-yardage runway; historically, position movers see floor gains without added bust risk relative to players who stay put.
- Elite Production
Montgomery scored 8 TDs against 10.2 expected in 2025, a -2.2 shortfall that points to positive touchdown regression once he inherits Houston's goal-line work.
Format Comparison
David Montgomery — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 2,807 | — |
| PPR SF | 2,330 | -477 |