Risk Flags
2- Elite Production
His 2025 touchdown total ran well ahead of expected-TD pace (roughly +2.8 over expected on 15 scores), so fantasy production is likely to normalize downward even if target share holds.
- Usage & Volume
Week 1 2026 snap share (61%) sits well below his 2025 full-season rate (71%), and both target share and snap share are trending down — an early signal a shrinking role could compound the age risk.