Risk Flags
1- TD Regression
His six touchdowns last season came against roughly three expected, a scoring rate well above what the underlying opportunity supports and one that projects to normalize downward even if his role holds steady.
Darren Waller
TE · #44CAR · TE · Age 34
FLEX
Darren Waller's recent target share of 19% over his last four games signals a resurgence in Miami, but it falls short of elite TE production.
Role & volume
Waller has seen a significant uptick in target share to 19% over the past four games, indicating he's becoming more involved in the passing game.
Projected role
As the TE26 on our value board, Waller is expected to maintain his role as a key receiving option but lacks the elite volume and consistency of top-tier tight ends.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Waller's recent performance suggests a floor around 1 PPR point per game and a ceiling of 25.6 PPR points, reflecting his inconsistent but promising usage in Miami.
Intel may be outdated · updated 5 days ago
Current statusCAR
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (2 flags)
Opportunity Flags
1- Scheme Fit
Carolina pursued Waller specifically for his catch radius near the goal line, and Dave Canales' offense already ran heavy 13-personnel packages at a top-10 league rate last season, giving Waller a plausible situational role if he wins snaps in that package.
Format Comparison
Darren Waller — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR SFBest | 387 | — |
| PPR 1QB | 354 | -33 |