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Daniel Jones headshot

Daniel Jones

QB · #27

IND · QB · Age 29

Redraft rank
QB23
•QB23 · Flex play
Tier
T2
Overall
#45
ADP
QB23
Consensus
Some split

Daniel Jones is the uncontested Colts QB1 entering training camp after a full recovery from his Achilles injury, with a strong supporting cast that could elevate his efficiency.

Role & trajectory
Jones carries a 10.8% carry share and has been named the starter by Steichen, indicating he is set to maintain his role as the Colts' primary quarterback.
Projected outlook
With a career-best season cut short in 2025 (17.4 PPG, QB19), Jones has a solid floor and modest upside if he can replicate that efficiency with his new supporting cast.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk is the uncertainty surrounding Jones's recovery from an Achilles injury, which could impact his rushing production and overall mobility.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
QB23
vs
Market ADP
QB23
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Source agreement
±8 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-28 quarterbacks most similar to Daniel Jones's 2025 season, 2 finished QB1, 3 finished QB2, 3 finished QB3, 2 finished QB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span QB4+ → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%30%30%21%
  • QB119%(2)
  • QB230%(3)
  • QB330%(3)
  • QB4+21%(2)
Next-season PPG range16.3 median
3.6p25–p75 12.9–17.720.2
10 most similar players
Dak Prescott96%
2022·QB13 · 17.6 PPG
Carson Wentz94%
2022·QB32 · 14.1 PPG
Jimmy Garoppolo92%
2020·QB39 · 10.7 PPG
Gardner Minshew91%
2025·QB57 · -0.1 PPG
Andy Dalton89%
2018·QB25 · 15.9 PPG
Joe Burrow87%
2025·QB29 · 16.8 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns

    Jones sustained a torn right Achilles tendon in December with rehabilitation underway, creating significant uncertainty despite optimistic timelines. There is no guarantee that Jones returns to his career-best form after sustaining an injury that so often proves devastating for elite athletes.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Jones is not under contract with the Colts for 2026 and headed for potential free agency in the spring. While the Colts are planning to initiate contract negotiations despite Jones' season-ending Achilles injury, deal structure and terms remain unresolved.

  • Achilles Recovery

    Jones tore his right Achilles in Week 14 (December 2025) and underwent surgery with a 6-8 month recovery timeline. While optimistic projections suggest training camp readiness, Achilles tears historically sap mobility and explosiveness, which are central to Jones's dual-threat effectiveness.

  • Injury Recovery

    Post-Achilles QBs face genuine performance risk in the return season — reduced pocket mobility, re-injury fear, and compensatory mechanics can all suppress production. While Jones is ahead of schedule, the real test is sustained in-game performance, not April throwing sessions.

  • Backup Competition

    Richardson could be a candidate to open 2026 as the team's starter with Daniel Jones headed for free agency, and the Colts likely turn down Richardson's fifth-year option and trade him. Riley Leonard appeared in five games as a rookie, completing 39 passes for 415 yards and two touchdowns.

  • QB Room Uncertainty

    Anthony Richardson has requested a trade and is missing voluntary OTAs, but no deal had materialized as of late April 2026. GM Ballard acknowledged a scenario where Richardson stays. If Jones struggles early and Richardson is on the roster, mid-season competition is a non-trivial risk.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Steichen System Fit

    Jones had a career year in the 13 games he played before his injury, with career highs in passing yards, yards per attempt (8.1), completion rate (68%) and QBR (63.5). Jones and Steichen forged the sort of quarterback-playcaller mind-meld that teams across the NFL constantly seek but don't always find.

  • Colts Org Commitment

    Barring a stunning turn of events, Jones will be the Colts' starting quarterback in 2026, with GM Ballard stating Jones 'has got a really bright future here in Indianapolis.' The Colts plan to open talks soon with Daniel Jones on a multi-year deal to keep him in Indianapolis.

  • Offensive Context

    Jones returns to an offense featuring Jonathan Taylor (RB1), Tyler Warren (top rookie TE), and three quality WRs in Pittman, Pierce, and Downs—all ranked in dynasty's top + range. This infrastructure supported the Colts' explosive first-half offense in 2025.

  • Contract Situation

    The Colts committed $88M over two years in March 2026 with heavy guarantees, signaling full organizational conviction in Jones as the long-term answer. This eliminates internal QB competition risk and guarantees a starting role through at least 2027.

  • Injury Recovery

    Jones returned to dropping back and throwing in April — ahead of the typical nine-month Achilles recovery window. His surgeon also performed the procedures for Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum, both of whom returned to full capacity, raising optimism for a Week 1 start.

  • Job Security

    Steichen has publicly named Jones QB1 and the Colts gave him a 2-year extension worth up to $100M in March 2026 — Richardson (who requested a trade) and Leonard are competing only for the backup job, leaving Jones zero same-position threat to his role.

Format Comparison

Daniel Jones — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest2,480—
PPR 1QB1,720-760