Risk Flags
6- Injury Concerns
Jones sustained a torn right Achilles tendon in December with rehabilitation underway, creating significant uncertainty despite optimistic timelines. There is no guarantee that Jones returns to his career-best form after sustaining an injury that so often proves devastating for elite athletes.
- Free Agency Uncertainty
Jones is not under contract with the Colts for 2026 and headed for potential free agency in the spring. While the Colts are planning to initiate contract negotiations despite Jones' season-ending Achilles injury, deal structure and terms remain unresolved.
- Achilles Recovery
Jones tore his right Achilles in Week 14 (December 2025) and underwent surgery with a 6-8 month recovery timeline. While optimistic projections suggest training camp readiness, Achilles tears historically sap mobility and explosiveness, which are central to Jones's dual-threat effectiveness.
- Injury Recovery
Post-Achilles QBs face genuine performance risk in the return season — reduced pocket mobility, re-injury fear, and compensatory mechanics can all suppress production. While Jones is ahead of schedule, the real test is sustained in-game performance, not April throwing sessions.
- Backup Competition
Richardson could be a candidate to open 2026 as the team's starter with Daniel Jones headed for free agency, and the Colts likely turn down Richardson's fifth-year option and trade him. Riley Leonard appeared in five games as a rookie, completing 39 passes for 415 yards and two touchdowns.
- QB Room Uncertainty
Anthony Richardson has requested a trade and is missing voluntary OTAs, but no deal had materialized as of late April 2026. GM Ballard acknowledged a scenario where Richardson stays. If Jones struggles early and Richardson is on the roster, mid-season competition is a non-trivial risk.