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D'Andre Swift headshot

D'Andre Swift

RB · #25

CHI · RB · Age 27

Redraft rank
RB21
•RB21 · Flex play
Tier
T2
Overall
#79
ADP
RB21
Consensus
Tight

D'Andre Swift's career-high 49% carry share in 2025 solidifies his role as Chicago's lead back, despite emerging competition.

Role & trajectory
Swift maintained a 62% snap share and led the team with a rising 49% carry share late in the season, indicating he remains the primary ball carrier.
Projected outlook
Chicago's elite offensive line and Ben Johnson's system provided Swift with career-high production (1,087 rushing yards, 9 TDs) in 2025, suggesting a similar role and volume if he remains the starter.
Risk & schedule
Swift faces competition from Kyle Monangai, who absorbed more targets late in the season (11.7 touches per game), signaling potential touch-share risk as Monangai's role expands.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB21
vs
Market ADP
RB21
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-27 backs most similar to D'Andre Swift's 2025 season, 1 finished RB1, 4 finished RB2, 1 finished RB3, 4 finished RB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span RB4+ → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

41%40%
  • RB110%(1)
  • RB241%(4)
  • RB39%(1)
  • RB4+40%(4)
Next-season PPG range12.3 median
3.0p25–p75 8.6–14.019.0
10 most similar players
Kenyan Drake93%
2021·RB55 · 8.5 PPG
Rhamondre Stevenson93%
2025·RB17 · 12.8 PPG
Josh Jacobs92%
2025·RB15 · 15.2 PPG
J.K. Dobbins91%
2025·RB43 · 11.6 PPG
Dalvin Cook89%
2022·RB9 · 13.9 PPG
Melvin Gordon86%
2020·RB18 · 13.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionStrong carry shareAge 27 · peak window
Our view vs Market↑ 11 pts above market
Our view
80
Market
69
Producing above valueHigh draft pedigreeElite carry share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Usage & Volume2

    Ben Johnson has explicitly endorsed a hot-hand rotation with Kyle Monangai, who posted 783 rush yards as a rookie. The structured data confirms target share collapsed to 0% over the last four games, capping Swift's weekly ceiling and PPR floor.

  • Age And Rbo Cliff

    At 27, Swift is entering the typical RB value cliff despite his career-best 2025 season. Dynasty assets this age have limited remaining peak windows, and regression is common. Durability risk remains given his persistent groin and soft-tissue injury pattern.

  • Age Concerns

    At 27 years old, Swift is firmly in the RB value cliff window where production and dynasty values typically decline sharply. His window for peak value is rapidly closing despite his 2025 career year.

  • Contract Uncertainty

    Swift enters the final year of his contract in 2026 with an $8.8M cap hit and only $1.33M dead money, making him an easy cap casualty. Reports indicate the Bears could release him to free up $7.4M, and rumors suggest he may not return despite expressing desire to stay.

  • Backfield Depth

    Kyle Monangai is nearly on par with Swift in dynasty markets and closed 2025 recording at least 11 touches in 8 of his final 10 games — a trajectory that signals a genuine lead-back transition risk, not a depth-chart footnote.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Elite Production

    Swift finished 2025 with career highs: 236 carries, 1,141 rushing yards, 10 TDs, plus 34 receptions. Pro Football Focus named him the most-improved RB in the NFL with an 82.7 grade (9th-best). This wasn't a fluke—elite offensive line and Ben Johnson's system produced sustainable production.

  • Elite Offensive Ecosystem

    Chicago's near-league-best rushing attack (ranked 2nd in run offense) and exceptional offensive skill talent (Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland) creates sustainable opportunity for Swift as the lead back. The supporting cast is genuinely strong.

  • Lead Back Role Security

    Swift led the Bears in both carries and touches throughout 2025. Despite Monangai's emergence, dynasty analysts and the organization signaled Swift as the clear RB1. His playoff performance (13 carries, 54 yards, TD vs. Green Bay) confirmed trust.

  • Usage & Volume2

    Despite growing competition, Swift still commands 62% snap share and a rising 49% carry share — his volume floor remains intact while he holds the RB1 designation, providing a reliable weekly starter baseline.

  • Career Year Momentum

    Swift posted career highs in 2025 with 1,087 rushing yards, 9 TDs, and earned an 82.7 PFF grade (9th-best RB). The elite offensive line and Ben Johnson's scheme produced sustainable efficiency, suggesting 2026 could maintain similar production if he remains the starter.

Format Comparison

D'Andre Swift — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,776—
PPR SF2,272-504