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Dalton Schultz headshot

Dalton Schultz

TE · #27

HOU · TE · Age 30

Redraft rank
TE22
▲TE22 · Flex play+69 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#161
ADP
TE91
Consensus
Tight

Dalton Schultz's recent extension locks him as Houston's receiving TE1 for 2026, but his age and emerging competition signal a depreciating asset.

Role & trajectory
Schultz remains the clear No. 1 tight end in Houston with a target share of 19.1% and an air yards share of 13.6%, but his snap share fell to 68.6% late in the season, hinting at role compression.
Projected outlook
Houston's investment in Marlin Klein as a direct Schultz comp signals a clear succession plan, limiting Schultz's upside ceiling for one more year before his contract void in 2027.
Risk & schedule
Schultz faces competition from emerging talent like Cade Stover and the addition of Marlin Klein, who will likely limit his target share and snap count over time despite redshirting in 2026.
Value vs ADP+69 slots of value
Our rank
TE22
vs
Market ADP
TE91
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE91 ADP · +69 slots
Major
+
Source agreement
±3 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-29 tight ends most similar to Dalton Schultz's 2025 season, 4 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 3 finished TE3, 1 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

38%19%34%
  • TE138%(4)
  • TE219%(2)
  • TE334%(3)
  • TE4+9%(1)
Next-season PPG range8.6 median
3.7p25–p75 6.7–10.611.5
10 most similar players
David Njoku89%
2025·TE36 · 7.8 PPG
Evan Engram83%
2024·TE34 · 9.9 PPG
Jonnu Smith81%
2025·TE35 · 4.8 PPG
Tyler Higbee79%
2023·TE24 · 6.8 PPG
Jimmy Graham73%
2018·TE11 · 8.2 PPG
Hunter Henry71%
2025·TE3 · 9.8 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we value him above the market
Why
Strong usage productionStrong target shareAge 30 · veteranTDs due to regress
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
  • ▲Opportunity share
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↑ 33 pts above market
Our view
84
Market
51
TD regression riskProducing above valueElite target share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Draft Capital3

    Houston's R2 investment in Marlin Klein (No. 59 overall) is an explicit succession signal — the Texans organization publicly framed Klein as an 'eventual replacement' for Schultz, compressing his dynasty window to roughly one contract year.

  • Age Concerns

    At 29.6 years old, Schultz is entering peak decline years for the TE position. Though he had a strong 2025 season (82 rec, 777 yards), his career arc shows diminishing end-zone usage and touchdown production that limits ceiling.

  • Target Volume

    The Texans improved their WR group this offseason with a trade for Christian Kirk and a pair of Day 2 draft picks (Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), directly competing for volume with Schultz in an offense with limited touches.

  • Target Competition

    Cade Stover missed 8 games in 2025; Schultz's career-high 106 targets were partially a vacancy fill. A fully healthy Stover in 2026 projects to reclaim 15-25 targets, directly threatening the volume that underpins Schultz's dynasty value.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Usage & Volume2

    Schultz set new career highs with 82 receptions on 106 targets over 17 games, turning that volume into 777 yards and three TDs. He remains the clear #1 TE on Houston's depth chart with reliable snap count safety.

  • Premier Offense

    Houston's offense under their current scheme has shown improvements, and Schultz remains a reliable red-zone target and safety valve for the QB.

  • Offensive Context2

    CJ Stroud is a top-10 QB with established TE chemistry, and the Texans' pass-heavy system provides a reliable floor — Schultz finished 2025 as the team's second-leading receiver behind Nico Collins.

  • Cade Stover Transition

    The Texans made their call on Dalton Schultz last year. Cade Stover is waiting in the wings. While Stover hasn't emerged as immediate threat, depth replacement remains a future concern for role security.

Format Comparison

Dalton Schultz — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,257—
PPR SF1,146-111