Risk Flags
6- Age Concerns
At 29.6 years old, Schultz is entering peak decline years for the TE position. Though he had a strong 2025 season (82 rec, 777 yards), his career arc shows diminishing end-zone usage and touchdown production that limits ceiling.
- Target Volume
The Texans improved their WR group this offseason with a trade for Christian Kirk and a pair of Day 2 draft picks (Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), directly competing for volume with Schultz in an offense with limited touches.
- Target Competition
Cade Stover missed 8 games in 2025; Schultz's career-high 106 targets were partially a vacancy fill. A fully healthy Stover in 2026 projects to reclaim 15-25 targets, directly threatening the volume that underpins Schultz's dynasty value.
- Draft Capital
Houston spent the 59th overall pick (R2) on TE Marlin Klein and added veteran Foster Moreau, signaling a clear succession plan. Klein projects as a blocker first but is expected to climb to the No. 2 role quickly, capping Schultz's two-year runway.
- Injury Concerns
Schultz left a playoff game early with a calf injury, though Texans GM Nick Caserio said "it's just a calf, I don't think it's gonna be anything major". History of shoulder and back issues compounds aging concerns.
- Touchdown Regression
Schultz was targeted only twice inside the opponent's 10-yard line all season in 2025, down from five in 2024. This near-zero red zone usage eliminates any meaningful TD upside despite high target volume.