Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid scored 7 touchdowns against roughly 3.3 expected in 2025, a wide positive gap that typically reverts toward the mean and could suppress per-target scoring even if his overall role grows.

Kincaid has carried knee and calf issues into each of the past two seasons without missing a game, and beat coverage points to a managed practice/snap-load plan for 2026 — a chronic durability watch item even though missed-game totals remain at zero.

A crowded skill-position group (D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, plus Dawson Knox at the same position) limits how much of Josh Allen's target pie Kincaid can realistically absorb even in an expanded role.

Even on a limited snap diet, Kincaid has led all tight ends in targets per route run and trailed only George Kittle in yards per route among TEs, so incremental playing time should translate efficiently into production.

Coverage frames 2026 as a contract-year opportunity for Kincaid, aligning his and the team's incentives toward maximizing his receiving role down the stretch.

Buffalo added no draft capital at tight end in 2026 and same-position competition is limited to Dawson Knox, leaving Kincaid's path to a larger target share structurally clear.