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Dalton Kincaid headshot

Dalton Kincaid

TE · #10

BUF · TE · Age 26

◆FLEX

Dalton Kincaid's recent target share decline signals a reduced role in the Buffalo offense, making him a FLEX option rather than a START.

Role & volume
Kincaid has seen his target share drop to an average of just 12.5% over his last four games, indicating diminished involvement in the passing game.
Projected role
Our value ranks Kincaid as TE13, suggesting he is not expected to be a primary option for fantasy managers and will likely continue to see limited targets.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Given his recent performance, Kincaid's floor appears to be near zero points with a ceiling of around 14 PPR points based on his highest output in the last four games.
Intel may be outdated · updated 50 days ago
Current statusBUF
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionAverage target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 6 pts below market
Our view
76
Market
82
TD rebound upsideLong career runwayHigh draft pedigree

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Elite Production

    Kincaid scored 7 touchdowns against roughly 3.3 expected in 2025, a wide positive gap that typically reverts toward the mean and could suppress per-target scoring even if his overall role grows.

  • Injury Concerns

    Kincaid has carried knee and calf issues into each of the past two seasons without missing a game, and beat coverage points to a managed practice/snap-load plan for 2026 — a chronic durability watch item even though missed-game totals remain at zero.

  • Target Volume

    A crowded skill-position group (D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, plus Dawson Knox at the same position) limits how much of Josh Allen's target pie Kincaid can realistically absorb even in an expanded role.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Elite Production

    Even on a limited snap diet, Kincaid has led all tight ends in targets per route run and trailed only George Kittle in yards per route among TEs, so incremental playing time should translate efficiently into production.

  • Contract Situation

    Coverage frames 2026 as a contract-year opportunity for Kincaid, aligning his and the team's incentives toward maximizing his receiving role down the stretch.

  • Draft Capital

    Buffalo added no draft capital at tight end in 2026 and same-position competition is limited to Dawson Knox, leaving Kincaid's path to a larger target share structurally clear.

Format Comparison

Dalton Kincaid — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,759—
PPR SF2,380-379