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Dalton Kincaid headshot

Dalton Kincaid

TE · #13

BUF · TE · Age 26

Redraft rank
TE14
•TE14 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#142
ADP
TE13
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-1 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE14
vs
Market ADP
TE13
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE14 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 tight ends most similar to Dalton Kincaid's 2025 season, 5 finished TE1, 2 finished TE3, 2 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

54%19%18%
  • TE154%(5)
  • TE319%(2)
  • TE4+18%(2)
  • Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range8.6 median
0.6p25–p75 3.3–10.212.2
10 most similar players
Hayden Hurst95%
2020·TE12 · 9.3 PPG
Eric Ebron92%
2020·TE7 · 10.1 PPG
Anthony Firkser71%
2021·TE32 · 4.6 PPG
Robert Tonyan68%
2020·TE3 · 11.7 PPG
Tanner Hudson67%
2021·Missed the season
Mike Gesicki66%
2021·TE12 · 9.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Kincaid heads into 2026 as Buffalo's clear starting TE, with his fifth-year option picked up (~$10.74M guaranteed, control through 2027) and Dawson Knox as the only depth-chart threat. The encouraging signals are real: he reports the best knee/lower-body health of his career after choosing rehab over surgery again, HC Joe Brady has praised his stronger frame and headspace at OTAs, and his usage and snaps trended up into a playoff run (15% target share, 49% snaps in the Divisional round). The offsetting concern is a hard target ceiling — D.J. Moore's arrival, plus Shakir, Cook, and a deeper WR room, leaves him as a clear third/fourth option, and GM Brandon Beane has openly said his workload may be managed given the lingering PCL. His 2025 efficiency was elite but came on limited snaps, so volume — not talent — is the swing variable. With community value depressed to roughly TE11–14, this is a modest BUY-LOW for contenders willing to bet on health and a Brady-opened playbook over the next 1-2 years; in win-now builds it is a comfortable HOLD. Avoid paying for the breakout — pay the discounted price.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionAverage target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 6 pts below market
Our view
76
Market
82
TD rebound upsideLong career runwayHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns4

    Kincaid played entire 2025 season on torn PCL from November 2024, limiting him to 12 games and career-low snap counts. While avoiding surgery, chronic knee issues raise long-term durability questions heading into final guaranteed year of rookie deal.

  • Target Floor Without Health

    49 targets across 12 games translates to ~65 targets annualized—far below elite TE1 expectations. Poor efficiency (6.0 YPT, 59% catch rate) suggests structural issues beyond just missing games due to injury.

  • Production Efficiency

    Posted career-worst 59% catch rate and 6.0 yards-per-target in 2025 despite 20.3% target share in elite Josh Allen offense. Only 39 receptions on 49 targets with career-low snaps raises questions about ability to handle increased volume even when healthy.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Target Volume

    With Stefon Diggs traded to Houston, Kincaid becomes the de facto alpha receiving target in Buffalo's offense alongside Josh Allen, positioning him for significant target growth in 2025.

  • Josh Allen Stack

    Playing alongside one of the NFL's most prolific passing QBs in a vertical passing scheme creates consistent scoring opportunity and ceiling games, especially with reduced competition for targets.

  • Injury Concerns

    Stefon Diggs (traded April 2024) suffered ACL tear in Week 8 of 2025 season, negating the expected target competition spike. Kincaid remains Bills' primary passing weapon with Josh Allen and minimal elite WR threats.

  • Fifth Year Option

    Bills GM Brandon Beane confirmed he anticipates picking up Kincaid's fifth-year option (~$8.7M for 2027), signaling organizational commitment and securing him through at least 2027 despite injury concerns.

  • Contract Situation

    The Bills officially picked up Kincaid's 5th-year option worth $8.1M fully guaranteed for the 2027 season, locking him in through year five. This removes any near-term cut or trade risk and signals explicit organizational buy-in as a core offensive piece.

  • Offensive Context

    Kincaid posted career-best efficiency metrics in 2025 — 2.73 yards per route run, 14.6 YPR, 11.7 YPT — all with the top-valued QB in dynasty (Josh Allen, value). Per-opportunity production is elite when he is healthy and on the field.

Format Comparison

Dalton Kincaid — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,489—
PPR SF2,163-326