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Dallas Goedert headshot

Dallas Goedert

TE · #21

PHI · TE · Age 31

Redraft rank
TE13
•TE13 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#139
ADP
TE9
Consensus
Coin flip

Dallas Goedert's 19.5% target share in the Eagles' offense makes him a reliable starter for the upcoming season, despite competition risks from rookie Eli Stowers.

Role & trajectory
Goedert's role as the primary red-zone threat for Jalen Hurts is solidified by his 19.5% target share and 85.1% snap share, though rookie Eli Stowers poses a long-term risk to his workload.
Projected outlook
Goedert's projected outlook for the upcoming season includes a high ceiling in the red zone with a career-high 11 touchdowns from last year, despite public projections of only 45 targets and 3 touchdowns due to his blocking responsibilities.
Risk & schedule
The risk lies in Eli Stowers' potential late-season breakout as the Eagles' TE2, which could erode Goedert's target share. Additionally, at 31 years old on a one-year deal with no future security, his dynasty value is Tier 5.
Value vs ADP-4 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE13
vs
Market ADP
TE9
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE13 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
ADP value
TE9 ADP · -4 slots
Notable
−
Source agreement
±25 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
−
Age / role
age 31 TE
Notable
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-31 tight ends most similar to Dallas Goedert's 2025 season, 4 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → TE1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

41%21%29%
  • TE141%(4)
  • TE221%(2)
  • TE39%(1)
  • Missed season29%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
71%hang on~9.9 PPG·29%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–11.216.4
10 most similar players
George Kittle87%
2025·TE14 · 13.6 PPG
Hunter Henry87%
2025·TE3 · 9.8 PPG
Jared Cook81%
2018·Missed the season
Travis Kelce74%
2021·TE1 · 17.8 PPG
Zach Ertz67%
2021·TE7 · 10.3 PPG
Jimmy Graham65%
2018·TE11 · 8.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionStrong target shareAge 31 · window closingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 6 pts below market
Our view
57
Market
63
TD rebound upsideAge-curve riskProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • TE Succession

    The Eagles spent R2 capital on Eli Stowers (2025 Mackey Award winner), explicitly tabbed as the 2027 starter with a chance to break out late in 2026. Goedert's snap and target share are at near-term risk of erosion.

  • Scheme Fit

    Philadelphia's wide-zone run scheme demands heavy inline blocking from Goedert, lowering his route participation and capping his weekly ceiling. A public 2026 projection has him at only ~45 targets, 340 yards, and 3 TDs — a sharp drop from his 2025 producer profile.

  • Age Concerns

    At 31 on a one-year deal, Goedert is a depreciating dynasty asset (Tier 5) whose redraft value far exceeds his long-term dynasty equity. Time horizon for positive contribution is one to two seasons.

  • Contract Situation

    His 1-year, ~$7M contract carries no future security, he went unsigned into FA before re-signing, and at least one report floated a possible Eagles trade. He likely exits Philadelphia in 2027.

Opportunity Flags

1
  • Red Zone Role

    With A.J. Brown gone, Goedert is the Eagles' primary big-bodied red-zone threat for Jalen Hurts after a career-high 11-TD 2025. TD-dependent but a viable streaming/contender TE1 for the coming season.

Format Comparison

Dallas Goedert — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,625—
PPR SF1,446-179