Dallas Goedert

At 31, Goedert is at the back edge of the TE production curve where decline can arrive abruptly, and he carries a knee injury history that has cost him games in prior seasons.

Goedert has a documented pattern of soft tissue injuries (knee, hamstring, ankle) throughout 2025. Recovery windows lengthen at age 31, increasing re-injury risk and durability concerns.

Goedert is an unrestricted free agent in March 2026. Eagles face defensive priorities and cap constraints with multiple key FAs, and GM Howie Roseman has emphasized shifting spending to defense.

His 11 TDs in 2025 more than doubled his previous career best and represent a clear outlier — regression toward 5-7 touchdowns is statistically near-certain. This alone could knock him from TE4 to TE8-12 in 2026 PPR scoring.

Philadelphia spent a 2026 second-round pick (P22) on Eli Stowers, explicitly framed by the team as Goedert's long-term pass-catching replacement; the dynasty clock is now formally ticking.

A reworked pass-catching room (DeVonta Smith, rookie Makai Lemon, Marquise Brown/Dontayvion Wicks, plus Saquon Barkley's volume) compresses his target ceiling; his target share already dipped to 21% late last season even as snaps climbed to 92%.

Goedert just posted career highs: 60 receptions, 591 yards, 11 TD (plus 2 more in playoffs). He's proven elite red-zone value under Hurts with strong target share when healthy.

Goedert broke the Eagles franchise TE record with 11 TDs in 2025, establishing elite red-zone chemistry with Jalen Hurts. Added 2 more TDs in playoffs.

A post-June 1 AJ Brown trade (widely expected to save $26M in cap vs. pre-June 1) would redirect a massive target share to Goedert. His last extended stretch without Brown produced 830 yards and career-high efficiency; with DeVonta Smith (4765 value) as the only remaining proven outside threat, Goedert could see sustained 30%+ target share.

The AJ Brown trade saga remains active — a post-June 1 trade saves Philadelphia ~$7M on the cap and elevates Goedert to unquestioned alpha receiver in Jalen Hurts' offense for one final contract season. If Brown is moved, Goedert's target share could spike to 28-35%, making him a top-3 dynasty TE for 2026.

Playing on a one-year contract at 31 creates maximum performance incentive. Historically, veteran TEs on prove-it deals maintain elite availability and snap counts, and his 92% snap share in W19 confirms he's still physically capable of workhorse usage.

Goedert just posted career-best catches (60) and TDs (11), finishing as the PPR TE4. This performance peak, combined with the Stowers pick now being confirmed, creates the optimal sell window before his dynasty value begins its irreversible decline.