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Dak Prescott headshot

Dak Prescott

QB · #15

DAL · QB · Age 32

Redraft rank
QB10
•QB10 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#17
ADP
QB8
Consensus
Coin flip

Dak Prescott's 11.8% carry share in the 2025 season sets him apart as a QB with meaningful rushing upside, despite his primary value coming from passing volume.

Role & trajectory
Prescott's role remains that of a high-volume passer with added rushing potential; however, the recent injury scare and durability concerns could impact his workload.
Projected outlook
With key receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens returning alongside Jake Ferguson, Prescott is projected to maintain elite passing volume, potentially aiming for a 5,000-yard season as suggested by Ben Solak.
Risk & schedule
Prescott's durability history, including the knee soreness that sidelined him in June 2026 minicamp, introduces risk to his full-season workload and rushing production.
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB10
vs
Market ADP
QB8
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB10 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
ADP value
QB8 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-32 quarterbacks most similar to Dak Prescott's 2025 season, 3 finished QB1, 4 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

31%38%19%
  • QB131%(3)
  • QB238%(4)
  • QB319%(2)
  • Missed season12%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range15.6 median
2.0p25–p75 12.9–19.522.5
10 most similar players
Cam Newton96%
2022·Missed the season
Case Keenum90%
2019·QB30 · 10.3 PPG
Derek Carr88%
2022·QB18 · 14.6 PPG
Ryan Tannehill87%
2020·QB9 · 21.0 PPG
Matt Ryan85%
2018·QB3 · 22.2 PPG
Russell Wilson77%
2021·QB16 · 17.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Injury Concerns

    Minor knee soreness kept him out of day one of mandatory minicamp; the staff has downplayed it as unrelated to last year's hamstring avulsion surgery and not a threat to training camp, but it's worth a periodic check given his age and injury history.

  • Age Concerns

    Turns 33 during the 2026 season entering year 11 — still performing at a high level, but dynasty QB value typically begins eroding in the mid-30s even for pocket passers.

Opportunity Flags

4
  • Depth Chart Security

    Unchallenged QB1 with Joe Milton and Will Grier as the only backups; Dallas added no QB competition in the 2026 draft, and his new extension cements him as the starter for the foreseeable future.

  • Offensive Context

    CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give him arguably the league's best WR duo, with Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams rounding out an offense that ranked #2 in total yards in 2025.

  • Coaching Continuity

    Entering year two under Brian Schottenheimer without a scheme change, following a top-two offense in 2025 — a stable system that reduces year-over-year variance.

  • Contract Situation

    Signed a 4-year, $240M extension and restructured his 2026 cap number in March, signaling Dallas's long-term commitment and reducing benching or trade risk.

Format Comparison

Dak Prescott — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest4,581—
PPR 1QB2,639-1,942