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Dak Prescott headshot

Dak Prescott

QB · #15

DAL · QB · Age 32

Redraft rank
QB10
•QB10 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#17
ADP
QB8
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB10
vs
Market ADP
QB8
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB10 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
ADP value
QB8 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-32 quarterbacks most similar to Dak Prescott's 2025 season, 3 finished QB1, 4 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

31%38%19%
  • QB131%(3)
  • QB238%(4)
  • QB319%(2)
  • Missed season12%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range15.6 median
2.0p25–p75 12.9–19.522.5
10 most similar players
Cam Newton96%
2022·Missed the season
Case Keenum90%
2019·QB30 · 10.3 PPG
Derek Carr88%
2022·QB18 · 14.6 PPG
Ryan Tannehill87%
2020·QB9 · 21.0 PPG
Matt Ryan85%
2018·QB3 · 22.2 PPG
Russell Wilson77%
2021·QB16 · 17.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Prescott enters 2026 as Dallas's entrenched QB1 coming off a fully healthy 2025 (17 games, 4,552 yards, 30 TD to 10 INT, PPR QB7) with only journeyman depth in Joe Milton and Sam Howell behind him and no QB draft capital spent. His June minicamp knee soreness was fluid-related and precautionary — he returned the next day — and the March 2026 restructure of his $60M-per-year contract cements him as the starter through at least 2027. The supporting cast of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson returns intact, the 2026 draft added only a seventh-round WR, and ESPN projections even float a 5,000-yard season, so the volume catalysts all point up. The structural concerns are age (32) and a throw-dependent profile with almost no rushing floor, which means his dynasty value tends to bleed slowly even through good seasons. Recommendation: HOLD in superflex/2QB, where he is a stable multi-year starter whose reliability contenders can buy with confidence; in 1QB formats he is a mild SELL for rebuilding teams, ideally into an early-season hot streak within the next 6-8 months.

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Injury Concerns

    Minor knee soreness kept him out of day one of mandatory minicamp; the staff has downplayed it as unrelated to last year's hamstring avulsion surgery and not a threat to training camp, but it's worth a periodic check given his age and injury history.

  • Age Concerns

    Turns 33 during the 2026 season entering year 11 — still performing at a high level, but dynasty QB value typically begins eroding in the mid-30s even for pocket passers.

Opportunity Flags

4
  • Depth Chart Security

    Unchallenged QB1 with Joe Milton and Will Grier as the only backups; Dallas added no QB competition in the 2026 draft, and his new extension cements him as the starter for the foreseeable future.

  • Offensive Context

    CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give him arguably the league's best WR duo, with Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams rounding out an offense that ranked #2 in total yards in 2025.

  • Coaching Continuity

    Entering year two under Brian Schottenheimer without a scheme change, following a top-two offense in 2025 — a stable system that reduces year-over-year variance.

  • Contract Situation

    Signed a 4-year, $240M extension and restructured his 2026 cap number in March, signaling Dallas's long-term commitment and reducing benching or trade risk.

Format Comparison

Dak Prescott — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest4,581—
PPR 1QB2,639-1,942