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D.J. Moore headshot

D.J. Moore

WR · #35

BUF · WR · Age 29

Redraft rank
WR29
•WR29 · Flex play
Tier
T2
Overall
#88
ADP
WR27
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR29
vs
Market ADP
WR27
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
ADP value
WR27 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
−
Source agreement
±11 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 8 age-28 receivers most similar to D.J. Moore's 2025 season, 1 finished WR1, 1 finished WR3, 6 finished WR4+.

Based on just 8 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

75%
  • WR111%(1)
  • WR314%(1)
  • WR4+75%(6)
Next-season PPG range10.2 median
5.0p25–p75 6.5–14.417.2
8 most similar players
DeAndre Carter82%
2022·WR60 · 6.9 PPG
Sterling Shepard74%
2020·WR44 · 13.5 PPG
Deebo Samuel70%
2025·WR31 · 11.8 PPG
Robert Woods67%
2021·WR56 · 15.2 PPG
Jamal Agnew61%
2022·WR98 · 4.5 PPG
Tyreek Hill59%
2021·WR4 · 18.3 PPG

+2 more analogs

Analysis

Moore was traded from Chicago to Buffalo this offseason (Bills sent a 2026 2nd, got Moore plus a 5th) and steps in as Josh Allen's clear WR1 — a genuine real-life and fantasy upgrade — while reuniting with new HC Joe Brady, who coordinated his best NFL stretch in Carolina. The structured data is a useful reminder of the downside: his final two Bears regular-season games cratered (1.7 and 2.1 pts on 10% target share) before a playoff rebound, finishing as the PPR WR19 at 10.9 PPG — a high-floor, modest-ceiling profile. The dynasty calculus is dominated by age: at 29 he's an aging asset whose value can rebound on offseason narrative but won't compound long-term, and Buffalo's spread-it-around offense (Shakir, Coleman, Cook, Kincaid) caps his ceiling even as the nominal alpha. Community sentiment (Dynasty Nerds ~WR35, the market/the market framing him as a 'middle-zone' contender buy) treats him as cheap upside tied to an elite QB. Recommendation: HOLD if contending and BUY only at a contender's discount (a 2nd or less) for win-now production; for rebuilders, this is a SELL-into-hype window over the next 1-2 months before the age discount widens.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight sell-high — we value him a bit below the marketSlight
Why
Solid usage productionAverage target shareAge 29 · window closingTDs due to rebound
  • ▼Touchdown-luck regression
  • ▼Dynasty age curve
Our view vs Market↓ 17 pts below market
Our view
57
Market
74
TD rebound upsideAge-curve riskHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume2

    Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland have led Chicago's passing game in recent weeks, limiting Moore's opportunities. Increased target competition in Odunze and Rome Odunze meant a drop in raw fantasy production in 2024, and this trend persists into 2025-26.

  • QB Receiver Chemistry

    Moore has been criticized for his route running effort, and Bears coach Ben Johnson says the chemistry between Caleb Williams and his pass catchers needs improvement. This limits upside despite scheme changes.

  • Age Curve

    At 28.8 years old, Moore is entering the typical decline phase for wide receivers, with his peak dynasty value window closing rapidly. He posted career-lows in receptions (50) and receiving yards (682) in 2025.

  • Inflated Value

    His value spiked from ~WR52 to ~WR31 on the market purely on the trade news; dynasty analysts broadly flag this as one of the year's clearest sell-high windows before production confirms the role.

  • Age Concerns

    At 28.8 years old, Moore is in late-prime but moving into natural decline phase for WRs. Moore has emerged as one of the league's most reliable and consistent players, having missed only two games in his seven-year career while finishing each of the past six seasons as a top-25 fantasy receiver, but durability doesn't offset aging trajectory.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit2

    Moore reunites with Bills HC Joe Brady, who was his OC in Carolina during 2020-21 when Moore surpassed 1,100 receiving yards in both seasons; proven chemistry and scheme familiarity represent a genuine production tailwind.

  • Trade Market

    At 28 with a trade value of, Moore could be moved to a contender mid-season if Chicago underperforms, creating potential win-now upside for buyers in competitive windows.

  • Improved QB Trajectory

    Williams set the franchise's single-season passing record (3,942 yards) and finished as a top-10 quarterback in passing yards and touchdowns (27) while orchestrating seven game-winning drives in Year 2. If Williams can make correctable footwork adjustments and build better rapport with receivers, the Bears could rise to being a top-five scoring offense in 2026.

  • QB Dependency

    Moving from a developing Caleb Williams to Josh Allen — a perennial MVP candidate — is one of the largest single-player dynasty upgrades available; Allen's accuracy and improvisation elevate every surrounding skill player.

  • Target Volume

    Escaping Chicago's loaded target room — Odunze, Burden, and Loveland all competing for Allen's looks — gives Moore a clear path to 100+ targets for the first time since his Panthers peak.

Format Comparison

D.J. Moore — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest3,033—
PPR SF2,390-643