Risk Flags
2- TD Regression
Moore scored 9 TDs in 2025 against 5.7 expected (+3.3), a touchdown-luck cushion that historically regresses and would cap weekly scoring even if target volume holds.
- Target Volume
A 17% target share and 0.40 WOPR in 2025 reflect a solid but not target-dominant role, and Buffalo's passing game also funnels volume to Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook, which could cap him in a high-WR2 rather than true-alpha scoring band.