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Cooper Kupp headshot

Cooper Kupp

WR · #106

SEA · WR · Age 33

Redraft rank
WR84
•WR84 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#201
ADP
WR79
Consensus
Coin flip

Cooper Kupp's $17.5M cap hit in 2026, coupled with his age-related decline and injury history, caps his value at WR84 despite a reliable PPR floor.

Role & trajectory
Kupp's target share trended up to 33% in the playoffs but faces competition from younger options like JSN and Rashid Shaheed, limiting his upside.
Projected outlook
Despite a reliable PPR floor of 8.1 points per game (WR42), Kupp's age-related decline and injury history suggest limited ceiling for the upcoming season.
Risk & schedule
Kupp's $17.5M cap hit in 2026 creates financial pressure, increasing release risk post-2026 and capping his dynasty value to a single season.
Value vs ADP-5 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR84
vs
Market ADP
WR79
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR84 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR79 ADP · -5 slots
Notable
−
Source agreement
±19 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
−
Age / role
age 33 WR
Notable
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 9 age-32 receivers most similar to Cooper Kupp's 2025 season, 2 finished WR1, 3 finished WR3, 4 finished WR4+.

Based on just 9 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

24%33%43%
  • WR124%(2)
  • WR333%(3)
  • WR4+43%(4)
Next-season PPG range10.5 median
3.8p25–p75 6.0–13.416.3
9 most similar players
Adam Thielen78%
2022·WR30 · 10.4 PPG
Randall Cobb71%
2022·WR92 · 6.3 PPG
Stefon Diggs70%
2025·WR9 · 11.5 PPG
Davante Adams67%
2025·WR7 · 15.2 PPG
Tyler Lockett63%
2025·WR93 · 4.0 PPG
Keenan Allen57%
2025·WR31 · 10.5 PPG

+3 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 33 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 25 pts above market
Our view
47
Market
22
Age-curve riskTD regression risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume2

    Kupp finished 2025 with only 16% target share despite starting 15 games, relegated firmly behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba (league-leading 1,793 yards, OPOY). JSN's dominance and dynasty value creates a hard ceiling on Kupp's offensive role.

  • Age Concerns

    At 32.6 years old, Kupp showed severe late-season fade in 2025 (18.4 PPG first 9 games to 4.9 PPG final 5 games) and finished with only 593 yards on 47 receptions despite playing 16 games. This pattern strongly suggests accelerated decline phase has begun.

  • Offensive Coordinator Turnover

    Klint Kubiak departed to become Raiders HC immediately after Super Bowl win, marking Seattle's fourth OC in four years. The Seahawks are expected to promote from within, but scheme continuity and Kupp's role security are uncertain for a precision route-runner requiring system familiarity.

  • Contract Risk

    Kupp's cap hit balloons to $17.47M in 2026 — up from $9.35M — making him Seattle's most expensive WR and widely cited as the team's most overpaid player. The Seahawks have a post-2026 out clause, creating credible release risk heading into 2027 that depresses long-term dynasty upside.

  • Depth Chart

    Kupp is at best WR3 in a four-deep room: JSN led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards in 2025, Shaheed was just re-signed on a multi-year deal with an expanded role expected, and Horton holds the WR4 slot. Target share swinging 12%-to-33% week-to-week signals opportunity-dependent usage, not a defined role.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Usage & Volume3

    Kupp's target share climbed to 33% in Week 22 and averaged 25% across the final three tracked weeks, with snap share stable at 78%. This playoff-run volume surge suggests the offense turns to him in high-leverage situations, providing a meaningful floor even as the WR2 in a top offense.

  • Offensive Context

    Kupp was part of Seattle's 2025 Super Bowl championship roster, proving his rapport with Sam Darnold and fit in the offense at the highest stakes. He scored in the NFC Championship against his former Rams, showing his clutch production ceiling still exists when the moment demands it.

  • Contract Security

    $9M of Kupp's 2026 salary vested fully-guaranteed on February 13 — the Seahawks officially confirmed his roster spot post-Super Bowl, eliminating in-season release risk. He is locked onto the 53-man roster for all of 2026, providing a concrete dynasty floor this season.

  • Contender Value

    For dynasty contenders he offers a stable, healthy possession floor (0 games missed in 2024–25) at a cheap acquisition cost — useful as a one-year plug for a roster pushing for a title.

Format Comparison

Cooper Kupp — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest878—
PPR SF781-97