Colston Loveland

Cole Kmet's future with Bears remains uncertain despite trade/cut discussions. If retained, Kmet's presence could cap Loveland's target ceiling, though Kmet's declining role (30 receptions, 347 yards in 2025) and $11.6M cap hit make departure likely via trade or release saving $8.4M.

DJ Moore was traded to the Bills, leaving Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III as primary WR options alongside underdeveloped depth. Ben Johnson has stated that targets will be distributed across all skill groups. If Chicago drafts or signs a high-volume receiver, Loveland's target share ceiling (currently near 33-45% in peak games) could compress somewhat.

OC Declan Doyle departed for the Baltimore Ravens and was replaced by Pass Game Coordinator Press Taylor. New OC relationships at TE typically require 4-6 weeks of scheme alignment, creating modest early-2026 uncertainty around Loveland's role and usage.

Snap share dropped sharply to 65% in the season finale (W20) after peaking at 91% in W18. This may reflect game-script or rest, but the trend needs monitoring heading into 2026 — sustained snap reduction would cap his ceiling regardless of target efficiency.

Snap share dropped to 65% in W20 after peaking at 91% in W18, signaling workload fluctuation even in a favorable situation. Consistently reaching 80%+ snaps will be a prerequisite for the target volume needed to hold a true TE1 fantasy floor in 2026.

Bears committed to Kmet for 2026 via a contract restructure ('Nothing changes for Cole' per GM Ryan Poles) and added Sam Roush in R3P25 of the 2026 draft. Three-way TE splits across heavy 12/13-personnel packages could compress Loveland's ceiling in the near term, even if he remains the clear receiving alpha.

Loveland led Bears in receptions (58), yards (713), and tied for TDs (6) as a rookie, becoming first Bears rookie to lead team in receiving since Willie Gault (1983) and first rookie TE since Mike Ditka (1961). Finished with 83.3 PFF receiving grade (4th among TEs).

Caleb Williams set franchise single-season passing record (3,942 yards) in Year 2 and explicitly praised Loveland post-season. Both players entering Year 2 together creates ideal growth window; Williams-to-Loveland connection averaged 4.9 receptions and 65.8 yards per game in final 12 contests after slow start.

Kmet acknowledged trade rumors as 'very real' and Bears are actively exploring trade options (projected 4th-5th round pick) or release to save $8.4M. His diminished role (out-produced by Loveland in all receiving categories) creates clear path for Loveland to unambiguous TE1 status by 2026 season.

Moore's trade to Buffalo removes Chicago's former WR1 and his substantial target share from the offense. Ben Johnson explicitly said tight ends will compete to absorb that production, and Loveland is the clear beneficiary as Caleb Williams' most trusted weapon.

D.J. Moore's offseason trade removes the Bears' most established receiving threat — a meaningful change from the prior analysis — and frees 15-20% of targets for redistribution. Loveland is the most natural beneficiary as the alpha receiving option in a TE-heavy scheme.

Ben Johnson's Bears ranked top-5 in both 12 and 13 personnel usage in 2025, with explicit intent to push multi-TE sets closer to the Rams' league-leading 30% in 2026. This creates a structural floor for Loveland's involvement that few TE situations in the NFL can match.

Young TE (22) — still in value appreciation phase