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Cole Kmet headshot

Cole Kmet

TE · #41

CHI · TE · Age 27

Redraft rank
TE42
◆TE42 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#254
ADP
TE25
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-17 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE42
vs
Market ADP
TE25
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE42 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
TE25 ADP · -17 slots
Major
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 tight ends most similar to Cole Kmet's 2025 season, 2 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%20%43%
  • TE119%(2)
  • TE220%(2)
  • TE38%(1)
  • TE4+43%(4)
  • Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range6.3 median
1.8p25–p75 3.7–10.312.4
10 most similar players
Ryan Griffin91%
2018·TE38 · 4.0 PPG
David Njoku84%
2022·TE14 · 10.1 PPG
Mo Alie-Cox82%
2022·TE45 · 3.9 PPG
Dallas Goedert72%
2021·TE8 · 11.3 PPG
Robert Tonyan67%
2021·TE49 · 6.3 PPG
O.J. Howard66%
2021·TE61 · 3.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Cole Kmet enters 2026 as a clear TE2 in Chicago behind ascending 2025 first-rounder Colston Loveland, who locked down the primary tight end role with a 58/713/6 rookie campaign. Kmet's snaps remain high (77%) but his value is now driven by blocking in the Bears' heavy two-TE usage (32.6%, 6th in NFL) rather than receiving, leaving him a touchdown-dependent streamer (PPR #32, 5.0 PPG). The two key swing factors are his contract/roster status — he's a widely cited 2026 cap-casualty/trade candidate despite Poles' public support — and the added depth from R3 rookie Sam Roush. For dynasty, this is a SELL/low-end hold: his standalone value is suppressed and any meaningful rebound requires a change of scenery or a Loveland injury. If you can recoup a late pick or use him as a streaming TE in deeper leagues, do so over the next 1-2 years before age (27) and role erosion compound.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 27 · peak window
  • ▲Draft-capital pedigree
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
41
Market
25

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Target Volume

    Loveland is firmly Chicago's TE1 after a 58/713/6 rookie season; Kmet's 7% target share is locked in a distant secondary role, with Sam Roush (R3, 2026) adding further low-end competition to a crowded room.

  • Usage & Volume

    Kmet has been repurposed as a 12-personnel blocker (5th-most pass-block reps among TEs); snaps are up (77%) but receiving usage is suppressed, capping fantasy ceiling at TE2/streamer (PPR #32, 5.0 PPG).

  • Contract Situation

    Multiple outlets list Kmet as a 2026 cap-casualty/trade candidate; while GM Ryan Poles publicly affirmed his role, the financial and depth-chart math makes his Bears tenure genuinely uncertain.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Offensive Context

    A trade or release to a TE-needy team could restore a clear pass-catching role and lift his depressed value, a frequently floated outcome in current Bears reporting.

  • Usage & Volume

    An injury to Loveland would immediately re-elevate Kmet to a full TE1 workload in a young, ascending Caleb Williams offense, providing meaningful but contingent upside.

Format Comparison

Cole Kmet — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest916—
PPR SF785-131