Cole Kmet

TE · #41

CHI · TE · Age 27

Redraft rank

TE42

TE42 · Depth

Tier

Overall

#254

ADP

TE25

Consensus

Tight

Cole Kmet's recent trend as a target is positive but his efficiency metrics suggest he remains a FLEX play.

Role & trajectory

Kmet has maintained a consistent role with a target share of 9.0% and an air yards share of 8.7%, indicating stability in usage.

Rest-of-season outlook

Despite trending as the #25 most added player, Kmet's efficiency metrics like catch rate at 61.1% and RACR at 0.83 suggest he is not a high-impact starter.

Risk & schedule

The recent decline in snap share to 70.8% introduces some risk, though the rest-of-season outlook remains uncertain without clear injury concerns or schedule advantages.

Value vs ADP-17 slots (reach)

Our rank

TE42

Market ADP

TE25

Drafted earlier than the projection supports.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

Source agreement

±1 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Case against

Projection rank

TE42 · proj. consensus

Notable

ADP value

TE25 ADP · -17 slots

Major

Neutral: Age / role

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 tight ends most similar to Cole Kmet's 2025 season, 2 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%20%43%

TE119%(2)
TE220%(2)
TE38%(1)
TE4+43%(4)
Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range6.3 median

1.8p25–p75 3.7–10.312.4

10 most similar players

Ryan Griffin91%

2018TE38 · 4.0 PPG

David Njoku84%

2022TE14 · 10.1 PPG

Mo Alie-Cox82%

2022TE45 · 3.9 PPG

Dallas Goedert72%

2021TE8 · 11.3 PPG

Robert Tonyan67%

2021TE49 · 6.3 PPG

O.J. Howard66%

2021TE61 · 3.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight

Why

Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 27 · peak window

Draft-capital pedigree

Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market

Our view

Market

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Target Volume
Loveland is firmly Chicago's TE1 after a 58/713/6 rookie season; Kmet's 7% target share is locked in a distant secondary role, with Sam Roush (R3, 2026) adding further low-end competition to a crowded room.
Usage & Volume
Kmet has been repurposed as a 12-personnel blocker (5th-most pass-block reps among TEs); snaps are up (77%) but receiving usage is suppressed, capping fantasy ceiling at TE2/streamer (PPR #32, 5.0 PPG).
Contract Situation
Multiple outlets list Kmet as a 2026 cap-casualty/trade candidate; while GM Ryan Poles publicly affirmed his role, the financial and depth-chart math makes his Bears tenure genuinely uncertain.

Opportunity Flags

Offensive Context
A trade or release to a TE-needy team could restore a clear pass-catching role and lift his depressed value, a frequently floated outcome in current Bears reporting.
Usage & Volume
An injury to Loveland would immediately re-elevate Kmet to a full TE1 workload in a young, ascending Caleb Williams offense, providing meaningful but contingent upside.

Format Comparison

Cole Kmet — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	916	—
PPR SF	785	-131