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Colby Parkinson headshot

Colby Parkinson

TE · #44

LAR · TE · Age 27

Redraft rank
TE37
▲TE37 · Depth+52 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#228
ADP
TE89
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP+52 slots of value
Our rank
TE37
vs
Market ADP
TE89
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE89 ADP · +52 slots
Major
+
Source agreement
±4 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE37 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-27 tight ends most similar to Colby Parkinson's 2025 season, 1 finished TE3, 7 finished TE4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

70%20%
  • TE310%(1)
  • TE4+70%(7)
  • Missed season20%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range3.3 median
0.0p25–p75 2.2–5.97.1
10 most similar players
Anthony Firkser95%
2022·TE81 · 2.4 PPG
Pharaoh Brown92%
2022·TE74 · 3.4 PPG
C.J. Uzomah91%
2020·Missed the season
Noah Fant91%
2025·TE38 · 5.8 PPG
Will Dissly90%
2023·TE52 · 3.4 PPG
Austin Hooper88%
2022·TE25 · 5.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Parkinson is coming off a genuine career year (43-408-8, PPR TE15) that earned him the incumbent role and red-zone trust from Stafford, but the production was almost entirely touchdown-driven on just 56 targets and 408 yards — a profile that screams negative regression for a player who has never averaged 4 targets/game in six seasons. The 2026 R2 selection of Max Klare, stacked on 2025 R2 Terrance Ferguson plus Higbee and Davis Allen, gives LA a cheap, younger TE future and makes Parkinson — in the final year of his 3yr/$22.5M deal — a real trade/cut candidate, with beat writers calling the rookies 'the future of the position.' Behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams there simply aren't enough targets to support a TD-dependent TE3-in-talent. The dynasty community (RotoBaller, DLF) flags him as a clear sell-high candidate, and that's the right read: his value is propped up by name recognition from the TD spike rather than durable role. Recommendation: SELL NOW while the TE15 finish still carries weight — package him to a contender or TE-needy manager this offseason before camp clarifies the squeeze; HOLD only if you cannot recoup more than a late pick, since his standalone value is more likely to erode than grow.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 12 pts above market
Our view
39
Market
27
TD rebound upside

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volatility

    Parkinson is listed first on the Rams depth chart ahead of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, and Davis Allen, but despite the return of top tight end Tyler Higbee, Parkinson matched a season high with seven targets while playing 84% of the snaps, and Higbee also had a strong game in his return from Injured Reserve, catching five of six targets for 91 yards and a score. The snap distribution remains unpredictable in LA's 13-personnel formations.

  • Contract Situation

    Parkinson is in the final year of his 3-year, $22.5M deal ($5.5M base in 2026) with no extension talks. League sources peg him as more likely to be traded than cut — possibly for a 2027 3rd — making him a near-zero-equity asset for a dynasty roster after this season.

  • Depth Chart Threat

    Terrance Ferguson (dynasty value, already outranking Parkinson) is the Rams' clear long-term TE1. His hybrid WR/TE skillset led all TEs in aDOT (18.3 yds) in 2025 and the team views him as the future, directly threatening Parkinson's snap and target share in 2026.

  • Draft Capital

    The Rams invested a 2nd-round pick (R2 P29) on Max Klare, a pass-catching TE out of Ohio State. While Klare begins as the 4th TE in 2026, the draft capital signals a deliberate transition plan that could erode Parkinson's role by 2027.

  • Touchdown Regression

    2025's career year was TD-fueled — 8 TDs (vs. just 5 across his prior 5 seasons combined) on only 408 receiving yards and 56 targets. Red-zone scoring at that clip rarely repeats, and his PPR #15 finish is highly vulnerable to negative regression.

  • Target Competition

    Behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams (280 combined targets), the TE room is crowded with 2025 2nd-rounder Terrance Ferguson, 2026 2nd-rounder Max Klare, plus Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen — beat writers call Ferguson and Klare 'the future of the position.'

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Elite Production

    In 2025, Parkinson started in 10 out of 15 games, utilizing a '13 Personnel' set involving multiple tight ends, and set new single season marks with 43 receptions for 408 yards, and a new team single season record for touchdown receptions by a tight end with eight. This career year signals legitimate role expansion.

  • Higbee Departure

    Tyler Higbee's contract voids February 16, 2026, and retirement speculation is widespread. His exit would solidify Parkinson as the TE1 with established chemistry with Matthew Stafford.

  • Contract Situation

    Parkinson's new 3-year, $22.5M deal ($9.08M 2026 cap hit) is a strong organizational signal — the Rams paid starter money, confirming he's their TE1a and not a camp body. This provides a firm floor for dynasty value through at least 2027.

  • Playoff Momentum

    Against the Carolina Panthers in an NFC Wild Card Game on January 10, 2026, Parkinson had two receptions for 34 yards, including a 19-yard touchdown for the game-winning score with 38 seconds remaining in the Rams' 34-31 victory. Late-season/playoff production demonstrates situational reliability.

  • Scheme Fit

    New OC Nate Scheelhaase promoted from within with full continuity in McVay's system; the top-ranked 2025 Rams offense runs heavy 13-personnel packages that require a reliable inline/seam TE, which is Parkinson's exact profile.

  • Target Volume

    Parkinson's 8 TDs in 2025 (nearly doubling his prior career total) established him as a legitimate red zone weapon under Stafford. Even in a reduced target share role, his TD rate provides a meaningful PPR scoring floor.

Format Comparison

Colby Parkinson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest942—
PPR SF802-140