Risk Flags
1- Age Concerns
RB age 30 — entering/past typical value cliff
Christian McCaffrey
RB · #12SF · RB · Age 30
Redraft rank
RB3
RB3 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#10
ADP
RB3
Consensus
Coin flip
Christian McCaffrey's 25.7% target share and 9.0% air yards share make him the clear passing-game alpha, a role that drives his scoring potential despite age-related concerns.
Role & trajectory
McCaffrey's carry share of 63.7% and snap share of 81.7% indicate he remains the primary ball-carrier, though recent trends show a slight decline in both metrics.
Projected outlook
As the RB for San Francisco, McCaffrey is projected to maintain an every-down role despite entering his age-30 season, with analysts still seeing him as the No. 1 PPR back at 24.1 points per game.
Risk & schedule
The addition of RB Kaelon Black and Brian Robinson poses a touch-share risk, especially given Shanahan's public vow to reduce McCaffrey's workload in 2026, potentially limiting his volume-driven scoring ceiling.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB3
Market ADP
RB3
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotableNotable
Case for
Projection rank
RB3 · proj. consensus
Case against
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Age / role
age 30 RB
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameHigh confidence
Of the 9 age-29 backs most similar to Christian McCaffrey's 2025 season, 2 finished RB2, 1 finished RB3, 6 finished RB4+.
Veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
21%67%
- RB221%(2)
- RB312%(1)
- RB4+67%(6)
Next-season PPG range9.0 median
6.3p25–p75 6.5–11.113.5
9 most similar players
Alvin Kamara76%
2025RB46 · 9.2 PPG
Giovani Bernard73%
2021RB65 · 6.5 PPG
Cordarrelle Patterson72%
2022RB35 · 11.4 PPG
Saquon Barkley69%
2025RB13 · 14.6 PPG
Le'Veon Bell64%
2020RB62 · 6.3 PPG
Devonta Freeman63%
2020RB86 · 7.2 PPG
+3 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 30 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↓ 9 pts below market
Our view
78
Market
87
High draft pedigreeProducing above valueElite carry share
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Christian McCaffrey — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 4,934 | — |
| PPR SF | 4,248 | -686 |