Fantasy Heartbeat
GuillotineRankingsTrade Calculator
Connect league

© 2026 Fantasy Heartbeat

  • Blog
  • Tools
  • Track Record
  • Pricing
  • Help
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Disclaimers
  • Contact

Fantasy Heartbeat is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the National Football League (NFL), any NFL team, the NFL Players Association, ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, or FleaFlicker. NFL team and player names are used for identification purposes only. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

← Back to Player Explorer
Christian McCaffrey headshot

Christian McCaffrey

RB · #12

SF · RB · Age 30

Redraft rank
RB3
▲RB3 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#10
ADP
RB3
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB3
vs
Market ADP
RB3
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
RB3 · proj. consensus
Major
Case against
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
−
Age / role
age 30 RB
Notable
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameHigh confidence

Of the 9 age-29 backs most similar to Christian McCaffrey's 2025 season, 2 finished RB2, 1 finished RB3, 6 finished RB4+.

Veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

21%67%
  • RB221%(2)
  • RB312%(1)
  • RB4+67%(6)
Next-season PPG range9.0 median
6.3p25–p75 6.5–11.113.5
9 most similar players
Alvin Kamara76%
2025·RB46 · 9.2 PPG
Giovani Bernard73%
2021·RB65 · 6.5 PPG
Cordarrelle Patterson72%
2022·RB35 · 11.4 PPG
Saquon Barkley69%
2025·RB13 · 14.6 PPG
Le'Veon Bell64%
2020·RB62 · 6.3 PPG
Devonta Freeman63%
2020·RB86 · 7.2 PPG

+3 more analogs

Analysis

McCaffrey remains San Francisco's unquestioned RB1 after a fully healthy 2025 in which he finished as the overall PPR RB1 (24.1 PPG, 311 carries, 102 catches, 413 total touches) and carried that role deep into the playoffs. The 2026 outlook is a tug-of-war between his production and the structural warnings around it: he turns 30 on enormous mileage, the 49ers have publicly committed to reducing his workload even if he objects, they drafted RB Kaelon Black in the third round and signed Brian Robinson behind him, and his contract effectively expires into a $16.85M decision after this season. The counterweights are a genuinely elite receiving role (26% target share) that ages well, a positive TD-regression profile (-3.1 vs expected), and a loaded offense that just added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk. In dynasty this is a classic peak-value sell: contenders can justify holding him for one more title run, but for anyone not clearly competing in 2026, the recommendation is SELL this offseason or into early-season production, before load management, the rookie pipeline, or the 2027 contract decision reprices him. Expect his redraft value to outlive his dynasty value — the market window is now through roughly midseason 2026.

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 30 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↓ 9 pts below market
Our view
78
Market
87
High draft pedigreeProducing above valueElite carry share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)

Risk Flags

1
  • Age Concerns

    RB age 30 — entering/past typical value cliff

Format Comparison

Christian McCaffrey — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest4,934—
PPR SF4,248-686