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Chris Rodriguez headshot

Chris Rodriguez

RB · #48

JAX · RB · Age 26

Redraft rank
RB42
•RB42 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#165
ADP
—
Consensus
Tight

Chris Rodriguez's career-best 2025 season with Washington, including a late-season surge to a 39% carry share, positions him as a flex option for Jacksonville in 2026.

Role & trajectory
Rodriguez's role on the Jaguars is projected to be an early-down and short-yardage specialist, with his 23.6% carry share from Washington serving as a baseline for his new team.
Projected outlook
Despite concerns about age and injury history, Rodriguez's connection with offensive coordinator Liam Coen and the lack of draft capital spent on running backs by Jacksonville suggest he could maintain or even improve upon his 2025 carry share in a committee backfield.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk for Rodriguez is competition from Bhayshul Tuten, who could emerge as the lead rusher if he breaks out, reducing Rodriguez's touch share and limiting his upside. Additionally, his left foot surgery in spring 2026 requires close monitoring to ensure full health.
Value vs ADP

No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.

What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB42 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 backs most similar to Chris Rodriguez's 2025 season, 8 finished RB4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

80%20%
  • RB4+80%(8)
  • Missed season20%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range2.6 median
0.0p25–p75 0.0–5.87.9
10 most similar players
Ty Johnson88%
2024·RB42 · 5.7 PPG
Dwayne Washington88%
2019·RB98 · 1.9 PPG
Jordan Mason87%
2025·RB38 · 8.1 PPG
T.J. Yeldon86%
2021·Missed the season
Isaac Guerendo86%
2025·RB104 · 0.0 PPG
Marlon Mack86%
2022·RB84 · 7.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionStrong carry shareAge 26 · peak window
Our view vs Market↓ 4 pts below market
Our view
37
Market
41
Thin opportunity share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Backfield Overcrowding

    Rodriguez is listed at the top of the RotoWire depth chart ahead of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, and Chase Edmonds, with Austin Ekeler on IR. However, Croskey-Merritt went off for 105 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries versus Dallas when Rodriguez was out, showing Croskey-Merritt is a legitimate threat to Rodriguez's workload.

  • Draft Threat

    The Commanders, picking seventh overall, may be in a prime spot to draft star running back prospect Jeremiyah Love, which could severely diminish Rodriguez's role.

  • Rfa Uncertainty

    Rodriguez is a restricted free agent in 2026, creating roster uncertainty as Washington could choose not to tender him or only provide a minimal tender given the crowded backfield and potential draft investments.

  • Draft Replacement Threat

    Washington holds the 7th overall pick and Jeremiyah Love is widely mocked to the Commanders in round one, which would immediately relegate Rodriguez to a backup/committee role and tank his dynasty value.

  • Depth Chart

    Tuten is Jacksonville's designated feature back; Rodriguez slots in as the early-down complement in a defined 3-man committee alongside pass-catching specialist LeQuint Allen Jr., structurally capping his weekly touch ceiling regardless of individual performance.

  • Injury Concerns

    Three separate ailments in 2025 (calf Week 6, groin Week 15, illness Week 17) limited him to 12 games and contributed directly to Washington's non-tender decision; the multi-ailment pattern is a soft red flag for a 26-year-old entering a volume-capped committee role.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Coaching Fit2

    Jaguars HC Liam Coen was Rodriguez's OC at Kentucky in 2021, where Rodriguez rushed for 1,000+ yards. This pre-existing chemistry gives Rodriguez an edge in earning trust and touches that a typical free-agent signing wouldn't have.

  • Lead Role Momentum

    Rodriguez won the lead role late in the 2025 season, having double-digit carries or a touchdown in each of his last seven games, demonstrating he can handle a featured role when given the opportunity.

  • Role Vacancy

    Travis Etienne signed with New Orleans on a 4-year, $52M deal, vacating the true lead-back role in Jacksonville's offense. Rodriguez arrives into a legitimately open backfield rather than behind an entrenched starter.

  • Role Opportunity

    Travis Etienne departed on a 4-year, $52M deal with New Orleans, vacating the feature back role in a Jacksonville offense built to run; Rodriguez is one Tuten injury or disappointing performance stretch away from inheriting a legitimate bellcow opportunity.

  • Buy-Low Window

    At dynasty value (Tier 6), Rodriguez is being priced as a late-roster depth piece despite a real coaching bond and a committed 2-year contract; the market is discounting his upside in a way that creates a favorable acquisition price for patient managers.

Format Comparison

Chris Rodriguez — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,606—
PPR SF1,362-244