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Chris Olave headshot

Chris Olave

WR · #16

NO · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR11
•WR11 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#51
ADP
WR12
Consensus
Tight

Chris Olave's 2025 season saw him secure a WR6 finish with elite alpha usage, including a 32% target share and 45% of team air yards, making him a standout starter for the upcoming year despite recent health concerns.

Role & trajectory
Olave remains New Orleans' clear WR1 with a 32% target share and 45% of team air yards in 2025, though Jordyn Tyson's selection at No. 8 overall introduces competition for touches.
Projected outlook
Olave enters the season as a proven alpha receiver with a WR11 value rank, aiming to finalize his contract before training camp and secure long-term status in New Orleans.
Risk & schedule
A blood clot diagnosis before Week 18 of 2025 carries recurrence risk, while Tyson's premium draft capital limits Olave's ceiling for a repeat of his outlier volume from last year.
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
WR11
vs
Market ADP
WR12
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
WR11 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 receivers most similar to Chris Olave's 2025 season, 3 finished WR1, 2 finished WR2, 1 finished WR3, 4 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%20%40%
  • WR130%(3)
  • WR220%(2)
  • WR310%(1)
  • WR4+40%(4)
Next-season PPG range14.1 median
5.2p25–p75 11.3–15.918.6
10 most similar players
Jerry Jeudy96%
2025·WR54 · 7.1 PPG
Allen Robinson94%
2019·WR12 · 15.9 PPG
DK Metcalf94%
2023·WR25 · 14.1 PPG
A.J. Brown94%
2023·WR8 · 17.0 PPG
Justin Jefferson94%
2025·WR22 · 11.8 PPG
Zay Jones93%
2019·WR151 · 3.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 7 pts above market
Our view
96
Market
89
Elite target shareProducing above valueTD rebound upside

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • TD Regression Risk

    Olave scored 9 TDs against roughly 6.0 expected (+3.0), a finishing-luck overperformance that historically regresses and could soften scoring output even if his target volume holds steady.

  • Target Volume

    New Orleans spent three 2026 draft picks on the WR room, headlined by Jordyn Tyson at No. 8 overall as the new WR2; reporting frames Tyson as complementary rather than a direct threat, but it's the first real target competition Olave has faced as a Saint.

  • Injury Concerns

    Olave remained on a limited practice workload at mandatory minicamp while finishing recovery from the January 2026 pulmonary blood clot that cost him the 2025 finale; the team calls it a precaution with no setbacks reported, but full-contact clearance for camp is worth tracking.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Elite Production

    Olave commands a 32% target share and 0.80 WOPR with 45% of the team's air yards, operating as the clear downfield alpha in a full-time role (84%+ snaps) with usage trending up late in the season.

  • QB Continuity

    Tyler Shough returns as the entrenched starter for Year 2, and continued QB growth and rapport is viewed locally as Olave's clearest path to a career-best 2026 season.

  • Contract Situation

    Olave is playing on his fifth-year option and reportedly in line for an extension north of $33M/year; a signed second contract would confirm his standing as a long-term franchise cornerstone and remove offseason uncertainty.

Format Comparison

Chris Olave — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest5,388—
PPR SF4,597-791