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Chris Godwin headshot

Chris Godwin

WR · #55

TB · WR · Age 30

Redraft rank
WR47
◆WR47 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#107
ADP
WR39
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-8 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR47
vs
Market ADP
WR39
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR47 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR39 ADP · -8 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-30 receivers most similar to Chris Godwin's 2025 season, 1 finished WR1, 6 finished WR4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

60%30%
  • WR110%(1)
  • WR4+60%(6)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~4.3 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–6.19.6
10 most similar players
Sterling Shepard95%
2022·Missed the season
JuJu Smith-Schuster92%
2025·WR89 · 4.3 PPG
Jamison Crowder90%
2022·WR163 · 3.0 PPG
Stefon Diggs89%
2025·WR9 · 11.5 PPG
Dede Westbrook89%
2022·Missed the season
Chris Moore88%
2022·WR63 · 7.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Godwin enters 2026 as Tampa Bay's veteran WR2 behind ascending alpha Emeka Egbuka, with his outlook materially improved by Mike Evans' departure to San Francisco, which vacates a large target and red-zone share. The bull case is real for redraft/win-now: ESPN projects him for the team's second-most targets, he led WRs in OTA reps, and he's healthy after a fibula-shortened 2025 (9 GP, #80 PPR). But the dynasty picture stays capped — this is an age-30 receiver coming off back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, a $33.7M cap hit inviting a restructure or trade (Browns/Monken speculation), and rookie R3 Ted Hurst plus Jalen McMillan adding long-term target pressure. His tier-5 value reflects a short, fragile shelf life rather than a true rebound asset. Recommendation: HOLD for win-now rosters and a modest BUY-LOW for contenders needing 2026 PPR points at his depressed WR51–61 price; SELL/avoid for rebuilders, as age and injury risk will keep grinding his value down over the next 1-2 years.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 30 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↓ 4 pts below market
Our view
51
Market
55
Age-curve riskTD regression risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns3

    Godwin didn't make his season debut until Week 4 while completing his recovery from a 2024 ankle injury, and after posting matching three-catch efforts in his first two games, he went on to log five consecutive absences due to a fibula injury. This pattern of recurring lower-body injuries (ACL 2021, ankle 2024, fibula 2025) significantly impacts durability and upside.

  • Target Volume2

    Emeka Egbuka (dynasty value vs. Godwin's) has effectively supplanted Godwin as the team's WR1, as confirmed by the market. Godwin's W18 target share of just 5% underscores his reduced role even when healthy, with the trend clearly pointing downward.

  • Contract Restructure Trade Risk

    Godwin carries a $33.7 million cap hit in 2026, with multiple reports indicating the Buccaneers are exploring trades or restructures. The team may move on from him this offseason to create cap space and prioritize younger receivers like Egbuka and McMillan.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Baker Mayfield Chemistry

    Godwin is seemingly Baker Mayfield's top target. The two have strong on-field chemistry, and Mayfield's continuation as QB ensures continued target opportunities when healthy.

  • Prior Elite Pace

    In his seven games, the veteran receiver averaged 19.7 fantasy PPG and caught 79% of his passes, both of which ranked second at the position. Godwin scored five TDs in seven games. If fully healthy for a full season, he can still produce at elite WR1-2 level.

  • Target Volume2

    Mike Evans' departure to the San Francisco 49ers opens up a significant volume of targets in Tampa Bay's passing offense. Godwin is the most experienced option to absorb a portion of those looks alongside Egbuka, and his veteran rapport with Mayfield gives him an edge for high-leverage situations.

  • Mayfield Chemistry

    When healthy in 2025, Godwin averaged 19.7 fantasy PPG with 5 TDs in 7 games, demonstrating elite per-game production and maintained chemistry with Baker Mayfield. A full healthy season could yield WR2 upside.

  • Buy Low Window

    Godwin's dynasty value has cratered to tier 6 after his disastrous 2025 season. If he stays in Tampa and returns to health, there's significant upside for contending teams willing to bet on a bounce-back at depressed cost.

Format Comparison

Chris Godwin — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,010—
PPR SF1,723-287