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CeeDee Lamb headshot

CeeDee Lamb

WR · #6

DAL · WR · Age 27

Redraft rank
WR5
▲WR5 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#23
ADP
WR5
Consensus
Some split

CeeDee Lamb enters the 2026 season as Dallas's WR1 with a real claim to an elite target share, despite a dip in his 2025 usage due to injury.

Role & trajectory
Lamb's role is that of a WR1 with a strong red-zone presence and a realistic path back to an undisputed alpha role if George Pickens leaves after the contract year.
Projected outlook
With a -2.7 expected-TD deficit from 2025, Lamb is poised for scoring regression that should push his value toward the elite WR tier by mid-2026 if he remains healthy.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk is the shared alpha role with George Pickens, who led Dallas in targets and touchdowns last season but returns on a contract year, potentially capping Lamb's weekly ceiling.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
WR5
vs
Market ADP
WR5
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
WR5 · proj. consensus
Major
+
Source agreement
±7 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 receivers most similar to CeeDee Lamb's 2025 season, 1 finished WR1, 1 finished WR2, 1 finished WR3, 7 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

70%
  • WR110%(1)
  • WR210%(1)
  • WR310%(1)
  • WR4+70%(7)
Next-season PPG range10.3 median
6.0p25–p75 6.9–12.814.5
10 most similar players
Corey Davis93%
2021·WR71 · 11.7 PPG
Darius Slayton92%
2024·WR75 · 6.9 PPG
DK Metcalf90%
2025·WR28 · 12.1 PPG
Brandin Cooks90%
2021·WR22 · 14.5 PPG
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine89%
2023·WR81 · 6.5 PPG
Darnell Mooney87%
2025·WR82 · 5.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionSolid target shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↓ 6 pts below market
Our view
89
Market
95
TD regression riskProducing above valueHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Target Volume

    George Pickens remains entrenched as a high-end WR2 alongside Lamb, and Lamb's target share slid across the season's final stretch (29% in Week 15 down to 22%, 28%, then just 4% in the Week 18 finale), showing the role is no longer a clean target monopoly.

  • Injury Concerns

    Lamb played only 13 of 18 games in 2025 after a high ankle sprain and a Week 14 concussion cost him time; he is fully cleared and healthy entering 2026, but the multi-injury season is worth tracking given the workload of a full-time X-receiver role.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • TD Regression

    Lamb's red-zone role produced 5.7 expected touchdowns but only 3 actually scored, a notable negative regression that positions him for a positive touchdown correction in 2026 even on similar usage.

  • Depth Chart Continuity

    Despite the target-share dip, Lamb has held the stable, uncontested WR1 designation since Week 16 and logged a full 78% season snap share, the volume floor of an entrenched primary receiver in Dak Prescott's offense.

Format Comparison

CeeDee Lamb — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest7,616—
PPR SF7,027-589