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Cedric Tillman headshot

Cedric Tillman

WR · #115

CLE · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR158
◆WR158 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#463
ADP
WR133
Consensus
Coin flip

Cedric Tillman's 2025 production offered little counterargument to his declining role, with just 21 catches for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns on a falling single-digit target share, finishing around WR100 in PPR.

Role & trajectory
Tillman's role is contested by the addition of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston in the draft, dropping him from a nominal WR2 finish to a fourth-or-fifth receiver fight behind Jerry Jeudy and Isaiah Bond.
Projected outlook
Our value ranks Tillman at WR159, reflecting his limited upside as a depth piece with a realistic chance of being cut or traded for cheap in the coming season.
Risk & schedule
The risk is high due to Cleveland's draft investments and Tillman's salary escalator making him an expensive WR5, with beat coverage projecting Jeudy, Concepcion, Boston, and Bond as the core four receivers.
Value vs ADP-25 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR158
vs
Market ADP
WR133
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR158 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR133 ADP · -25 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±133 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 receivers most similar to Cedric Tillman's 2025 season, 7 finished WR4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

70%30%
  • WR4+70%(7)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~6.6 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–7.611.2
10 most similar players
Michael Gallup98%
2022·WR59 · 7.6 PPG
James Washington92%
2022·Missed the season
Denzel Mims91%
2022·WR135 · 3.3 PPG
Miles Boykin90%
2021·Missed the season
Demarcus Robinson90%
2020·WR74 · 6.6 PPG
Mack Hollins90%
2020·WR132 · 4.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionStrong target shareAge 26 · ascending
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
33
Market
17
Long career runwayThin opportunity share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Target Volume

    Browns added KC Concepcion (R1 #24) and Denzel Boston (R2) in the 2026 draft, stacking Tillman behind Jerry Jeudy and two rookies on the depth chart. Single-digit target shares (4-10%) leave no realistic path to fantasy-relevant volume.

  • Usage & Volume

    Three NFL seasons without a 30-catch year, capped by a 2025 finish at PPR WR #100 and 5.0 PPG. The film and the box score both point to a fringe-roster talent, not a buy-low breakout candidate.

  • Injury Concerns

    Tillman lost roughly four games to a hamstring (IR) plus rib and concussion ailments in 2025, the latest in a pattern of missing multiple games every season of his career. Recurring soft-tissue and head injuries undercut any chance to seize snaps when openings appear.

  • Contract Situation

    Tillman is in the final year of his rookie deal (~$1.7M base) with no extension and a crowded room ahead of him, making him a candidate to be cut, buried, or allowed to walk in 2027. His standing in Cleveland is week-to-week at best.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Roster Mobility

    An expiring contract plus a logjammed WR room makes Tillman a plausible cut or cheap trade chip; landing in a thinner depth chart is his only credible route back to a WR3/4 role and modest value recovery.

  • Injury Opportunity

    His own 47-77% snap rates show he can absorb playing time if injuries hit Jeudy or the rookies, but the upside is a low-target complementary role rather than a true value rebuild.

Format Comparison

Cedric Tillman — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest810—
PPR SF646-164