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Cedric Tillman headshot

Cedric Tillman

WR · #115

CLE · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR158
◆WR158 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#463
ADP
WR133
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-25 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR158
vs
Market ADP
WR133
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR158 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR133 ADP · -25 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±133 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 receivers most similar to Cedric Tillman's 2025 season, 7 finished WR4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

70%30%
  • WR4+70%(7)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~6.6 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–7.611.2
10 most similar players
Michael Gallup98%
2022·WR59 · 7.6 PPG
James Washington92%
2022·Missed the season
Denzel Mims91%
2022·WR135 · 3.3 PPG
Miles Boykin90%
2021·Missed the season
Demarcus Robinson90%
2020·WR74 · 6.6 PPG
Mack Hollins90%
2020·WR132 · 4.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Cedric Tillman enters 2026 as a clear afterthought in Cleveland's WR room, sitting fourth or fifth behind Jerry Jeudy, first-round rookie KC Concepcion, and second-round rookie Denzel Boston after the Browns invested premium draft capital at his position. He's a pending free agent on the final year of his rookie deal with three straight sub-30-catch seasons, a 2025 finish at PPR WR #100, and a recurring injury profile (hamstring/IR, ribs, concussion). The only realistic value catalysts are a change of scenery or injury-driven snaps, neither of which projects beyond a low-target WR4. This is a sell/avoid for dynasty purposes — if you can recover any pick or package value, move him now rather than holding a likely roster casualty. Hold only as a last bench stash in deep formats hoping for a trade out of Cleveland.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionStrong target shareAge 26 · ascending
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
33
Market
17
Long career runwayThin opportunity share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Target Volume

    Browns added KC Concepcion (R1 #24) and Denzel Boston (R2) in the 2026 draft, stacking Tillman behind Jerry Jeudy and two rookies on the depth chart. Single-digit target shares (4-10%) leave no realistic path to fantasy-relevant volume.

  • Usage & Volume

    Three NFL seasons without a 30-catch year, capped by a 2025 finish at PPR WR #100 and 5.0 PPG. The film and the box score both point to a fringe-roster talent, not a buy-low breakout candidate.

  • Injury Concerns

    Tillman lost roughly four games to a hamstring (IR) plus rib and concussion ailments in 2025, the latest in a pattern of missing multiple games every season of his career. Recurring soft-tissue and head injuries undercut any chance to seize snaps when openings appear.

  • Contract Situation

    Tillman is in the final year of his rookie deal (~$1.7M base) with no extension and a crowded room ahead of him, making him a candidate to be cut, buried, or allowed to walk in 2027. His standing in Cleveland is week-to-week at best.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Roster Mobility

    An expiring contract plus a logjammed WR room makes Tillman a plausible cut or cheap trade chip; landing in a thinner depth chart is his only credible route back to a WR3/4 role and modest value recovery.

  • Injury Opportunity

    His own 47-77% snap rates show he can absorb playing time if injuries hit Jeudy or the rookies, but the upside is a low-target complementary role rather than a true value rebuild.

Format Comparison

Cedric Tillman — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest810—
PPR SF646-164