Calvin Ridley

WR · #101

TEN · WR · Age 31

Redraft rank

WR76

WR76 · Depth

Tier

Overall

#188

ADP

WR68

Consensus

Coin flip

Calvin Ridley's fractured fibula in mid-November 2025 limited him to just seven games, with his target share falling to a mere 3% over the final stretch of the season.

Role & trajectory

Ridley projects as the third boundary option behind rookie Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, with his snap share dropping to just 2% in recent games.

Projected outlook

At age 31-32, Ridley faces a clear WR decline window, compounded by the addition of R1 draft capital at his position and Cam Ward's targets spreading to younger options.

Risk & schedule

The rookie Carnell Tate poses significant competition for touches, with Ridley expected to retain only a boundary depth/rotational role rather than a weekly starter status.

Value vs ADP-8 slots (reach)

Our rank

WR76

Market ADP

WR68

Drafted earlier than the projection supports.

What’s driving the season rank

Case against

Projection rank

WR76 · proj. consensus

Notable

ADP value

WR68 ADP · -8 slots

Major

Source agreement

±53 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Age / role

age 31 WR

Notable

What similar players becameHigh confidence

Of the 10 age-31 receivers most similar to Calvin Ridley's 2025 season, 9 finished WR4+, 1 missed the season.

Veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

91%

WR4+91%(9)
Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range4.0 median

1.3p25–p75 3.7–7.78.5

10 most similar players

Marquise Goodwin89%

2022WR81 · 7.5 PPG

Tim Patrick85%

2025WR108 · 3.7 PPG

Mack Hollins84%

2025WR49 · 8.6 PPG

Julio Jones82%

2021WR78 · 8.4 PPG

Tyler Lockett77%

2025WR93 · 4.0 PPG

Marquez Valdes-Scantling77%

2025WR121 · 3.8 PPG

+4 more analogs

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line

Why

Solid usage productionAverage target shareAge 31 · window closingTDs due to regress

Our view vs Market↑ 19 pts above market

Our view

Market

Age-curve riskHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Age Concerns
Ridley is entering his age 31-32 season, the WR decline window, coming off his least productive year — dynasty value erodes quickly from here with no rebound path.
Target Volume
Per beat reporting Ridley sits third in the WR pecking order behind R1 rookie Carnell Tate (downfield role) and Wan'Dale Robinson (slot, out-targeting him underneath); recent game logs confirm a collapsed 3% target share.
Usage & Volume
Snap share fell to 2% and target share to 3% over the last stretch; with the contract restructured to a reduced role, Ridley projects as a boundary depth/rotational piece rather than a weekly starter.
Injury Concerns
Ridley fractured his left fibula on his first snap vs. Houston in mid-November 2025, ending his season; he's expected full-go for camp but the broken leg adds recovery and re-injury risk at an advanced age.

Opportunity Flags

Contingent Upside
If Tate or Robinson misses time, Ridley still retains a starter-caliber NFL skill set and led the WR room in air-yard share (25.6%) in 2025 — he could spike into temporary WR3 fantasy value.

Format Comparison

Calvin Ridley — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	1,033	—
PPR SF	874	-159

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

1,033

—

PPR SF

874

-159