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Calvin Ridley headshot

Calvin Ridley

WR · #101

TEN · WR · Age 31

Redraft rank
WR76
◆WR76 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#188
ADP
WR68
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-8 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR76
vs
Market ADP
WR68
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR76 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR68 ADP · -8 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±53 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
−
Age / role
age 31 WR
Notable
What similar players becameHigh confidence

Of the 10 age-31 receivers most similar to Calvin Ridley's 2025 season, 9 finished WR4+, 1 missed the season.

Veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

91%
  • WR4+91%(9)
  • Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range4.0 median
1.3p25–p75 3.7–7.78.5
10 most similar players
Marquise Goodwin89%
2022·WR81 · 7.5 PPG
Tim Patrick85%
2025·WR108 · 3.7 PPG
Mack Hollins84%
2025·WR49 · 8.6 PPG
Julio Jones82%
2021·WR78 · 8.4 PPG
Tyler Lockett77%
2025·WR93 · 4.0 PPG
Marquez Valdes-Scantling77%
2025·WR121 · 3.8 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Web sources confirm Ridley restructured his contract and remains in Tennessee for 2026, but in a clearly diminished role: rookie R1 Carnell Tate is the downfield WR1, Wan'Dale Robinson works the slot and out-targets Ridley underneath, leaving Ridley as the third boundary option. He's coming off a fractured left fibula that limited him to 7 games and 0 TDs in 2025, and recent game logs show his usage cratered to a 3% target / 2% snap share before the injury. At age 31-32 in the WR decline window, with R1 draft capital added at his position and Cam Ward's targets spreading to younger options, there's no realistic path back to a featured role. This is a clear SELL — move him now for any depreciating asset or late pick rather than holding through further erosion; any spike from a teammate injury would be a sell-high window, not a reason to hold. Dynasty value here is almost entirely contingency-based and trending toward zero over the next 1-2 years.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionAverage target shareAge 31 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 19 pts above market
Our view
51
Market
32
Age-curve riskHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Age Concerns

    Ridley is entering his age 31-32 season, the WR decline window, coming off his least productive year — dynasty value erodes quickly from here with no rebound path.

  • Target Volume

    Per beat reporting Ridley sits third in the WR pecking order behind R1 rookie Carnell Tate (downfield role) and Wan'Dale Robinson (slot, out-targeting him underneath); recent game logs confirm a collapsed 3% target share.

  • Usage & Volume

    Snap share fell to 2% and target share to 3% over the last stretch; with the contract restructured to a reduced role, Ridley projects as a boundary depth/rotational piece rather than a weekly starter.

  • Injury Concerns

    Ridley fractured his left fibula on his first snap vs. Houston in mid-November 2025, ending his season; he's expected full-go for camp but the broken leg adds recovery and re-injury risk at an advanced age.

Opportunity Flags

1
  • Contingent Upside

    If Tate or Robinson misses time, Ridley still retains a starter-caliber NFL skill set and led the WR room in air-yard share (25.6%) in 2025 — he could spike into temporary WR3 fantasy value.

Format Comparison

Calvin Ridley — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,033—
PPR SF874-159