Fantasy Heartbeat
GuillotineRankingsTrade Calculator
Connect league

© 2026 Fantasy Heartbeat

  • Blog
  • Tools
  • Track Record
  • Pricing
  • Help
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Disclaimers
  • Contact

Fantasy Heartbeat is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the National Football League (NFL), any NFL team, the NFL Players Association, ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, or FleaFlicker. NFL team and player names are used for identification purposes only. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

← Back to Player Explorer
Caleb Williams headshot

Caleb Williams

QB · #4

CHI · QB · Age 24

Redraft rank
QB13
•QB13 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#21
ADP
QB12
Consensus
Some split

Caleb Williams enters the 2026 season with a franchise-record 3,942 passing yards from his breakout year under Ben Johnson.

Role & trajectory
Williams secured 100% of QB snaps in 2025 and showed significant developmental growth, including a sack rate drop from 10.8% to 4.1%, indicating improved processing skills.
Projected outlook
With an ascending young receiving core (Odunze, Burden, Loveland) and a long-term play-caller in Ben Johnson, Williams is projected for continued growth and stability as the Bears' primary QB.
Risk & schedule
Williams's 58.1% completion rate and declining rushing volume (down to 13%) pose risks that could limit his ceiling if accuracy does not improve or rushing production continues to wane.
Value vs ADP-1 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB13
vs
Market ADP
QB12
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB13 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±8 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
+
Age / role
age 24 QB
Minor
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 quarterbacks most similar to Caleb Williams, 1 finished QB1, 7 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast.

68%
  • QB110%(1)
  • QB268%(7)
  • QB310%(1)
  • QB4+13%(1)
Year-two PPG range13.9 median
4.9p25–p75 9.9–16.217.8
10 most similar players
Davis Mills93%
2023·QB37 · 2.9 PPG
Bryce Young90%
2024·QB20 · 13.9 PPG
Zach Wilson87%
2023·QB24 · 10.0 PPG
Justin Herbert73%
2023·QB15 · 18.0 PPG
Mac Jones68%
2023·QB27 · 9.7 PPG
Tua Tagovailoa68%
2023·QB11 · 15.8 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (7 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Efficiency Ceiling

    Williams completed 58.1% of passes in 2025 (330-of-568) for a 90.1 rating, and has publicly named accuracy as his top offseason priority for 2026 — the gap between his ceiling and true elite-tier efficiency is still the main developmental hurdle.

  • Schedule Strength

    Chicago's 2026 slate is being cited as the toughest in the league by opponent win percentage, which could suppress raw counting stats even if per-play play improves.

  • Injury History

    Williams played through a rolled ankle (Wild Card vs. GB) and a hand/hit issue (Divisional vs. LA) in the 2025 playoffs; neither cost him snaps, but both point to the wear-and-tear risk of his scramble-heavy, high-snap-share style.

Opportunity Flags

4
  • Proven Breakout

    2025 was a genuine confirmation year: 3,942 yards, 27 pass TD/7 INT, 3 rush TDs, a #5 PPR finish at 18.8 PPG, and an NFC North title — outperforming the bust-leaning historical comps (Davis Mills, Zach Wilson) his draft profile originally suggested.

  • Entrenched Role

    100% snap share in every game across the season and playoffs with zero real competition behind him (Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum) gives him a rock-solid, uncontested every-down floor.

  • Scheme Continuity

    Entering year two of the Ben Johnson system with the same coaching staff (Johnson, Doyle, Barrett) who are explicitly simplifying the install after front-loading information in year one — continuity that historically accelerates young-QB efficiency gains.

  • Supporting Cast

    Surrounded by an ascending, talent-rich skill group (Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, D'Andre Swift) that gives him more high-end weapons than almost any comparable early-career QB.

Format Comparison

Caleb Williams — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest7,508—
PPR 1QB4,215-3,293