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Cade Otton headshot

Cade Otton

TE · #30

TB · TE · Age 27

Redraft rank
TE28
▲TE28 · Flex play+58 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#177
ADP
TE86
Consensus
Some split

Cade Otton's $30M extension locks him in as Tampa Bay's TE1, but his recent production decline and crowded receiver room cap his upside.

Role & trajectory
Otton enters the season with a 96% snap share and a 15.5% target share, indicating he is entrenched as Tampa Bay's primary tight end.
Projected outlook
Despite his strong role security, Otton's recent performance decline (ranked TE22 in 2025) and the presence of high-value receivers like Emeka Egbuka limit his upside to a streaming-TE2 floor.
Risk & schedule
Otton faces significant risk from competition for targets, with multiple WRs commanding volume, as well as QB uncertainty and potential scheme adjustments under new OC Zac Robinson.
Value vs ADP+58 slots of value
Our rank
TE28
vs
Market ADP
TE86
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE86 ADP · +58 slots
Major
+
Source agreement
±7 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 tight ends most similar to Cade Otton's 2025 season, 1 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 3 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

23%29%38%
  • TE110%(1)
  • TE223%(2)
  • TE329%(3)
  • TE4+38%(4)
Next-season PPG range5.0 median
2.3p25–p75 4.1–8.310.7
10 most similar players
Tyler Conklin93%
2022·TE17 · 7.7 PPG
Dallas Goedert89%
2023·TE13 · 9.9 PPG
Cole Kmet84%
2025·TE32 · 5.0 PPG
Evan Engram82%
2022·TE4 · 10.9 PPG
Jonnu Smith79%
2021·TE36 · 4.5 PPG
Nick Boyle77%
2020·TE59 · 4.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we see clear value above the market price
Why
Solid usage productionAverage target shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to regress
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↑ 40 pts above market
Our view
88
Market
48
TD regression risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Receiving Decline 2025

    Otton finished 2025 with 52 receptions and 478 receiving yards (ranked 23rd), 0 receiving touchdowns, and 72 targets (14th), representing a significant step back from previous years. He ranked 34th of 37 qualifying TEs in PFF's overall grade (57.4) and 36th of 37 in receiving grade (58.1).

  • Target Volume

    The Buccaneers have three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers (Egbuka, Godwin, McMillan) making it fairly rare to have all three available at the same time. With Emeka Egbuka as a first-round talent commanding targets, Otton's volume will remain capped.

  • Contract Situation

    Otton's contract expired after the 2025 season and he is currently an unrestricted free agent. Multiple reports suggest the Buccaneers may not re-sign him due to his $9.97M APY valuation, potentially leading to a team change that could impact his role and target share.

  • Declining Production

    Otton finished 2025 with just 52 receptions for 478 yards and 0 TDs (ranked 23rd at position), representing a significant step back from previous years. His PFF grades ranked 34th of 37 qualifying TEs overall (57.4) and 36th of 37 in receiving grade (58.1).

  • QB Volatility Uncertainty

    Baker Mayfield's play collapsed in the second half of 2025 and he is described as among the most volatile starting quarterbacks in the NFL. While the Bucs won't change QBs in 2026, the organization faces questions about whether to extend Mayfield's contract, creating uncertainty.

  • Scheme Transition

    Zac Robinson takes over as OC in his first year running Tampa Bay's offense, introducing scheme adjustment risk. While Robinson's McVay-tree system has historically featured TEs, Year 1 install periods often produce inconsistent usage before role clarity emerges.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit2

    New OC Zac Robinson brings McVay-tree DNA: pre-snap motion, play-action layering, and defined TE seam routes are hallmarks of this system. Mayfield reportedly championed Robinson's hire, indicating offensive buy-in. McVay-lineage systems have consistently produced TE volume (Higbee, Everett) and Otton is built for this role.

  • Target Security

    Otton has established himself as a primary red-zone target and reliable pass-catcher, providing consistent floor value in PPR formats regardless of QB volatility.

  • Contract Stability

    Otton signed a 3-year, $30M extension ($20M guaranteed, $10M AAV) in March 2026, locking him in as Tampa Bay's unambiguous TE1 through at least 2028. No free agency overhang or depth-chart competition risk for dynasty purposes.

  • Usage & Volume

    Otton has never dipped below 92% snap share in any season and leads all TEs in offensive snaps over the past three years. The volume floor is elite — any scheme lean toward TE targets would yield immediate fantasy production.

  • Target Volume

    Mike Evans' departure to San Francisco is the single most meaningful development for Otton's dynasty outlook. Evans commanded 100+ targets annually as the offense's alpha — those routes and red-zone looks must be redistributed, and Otton's 41% share in W18 suggests the coaching staff sees him as a primary beneficiary.

Format Comparison

Cade Otton — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,249—
PPR SF1,138-111