C.J. Stroud

QB · #18

HOU · QB · Age 24

FLEX

C.J. Stroud's recent rushing volume signals a unique upside for the position, but his overall value remains at QB23.

Role & volume

Over the last four games, C.J. Stroud has averaged a 13% carry share, indicating he is contributing significantly as a rusher.

Projected role

Despite Brett Rypien's return to the team, Stroud continues to see substantial rushing volume and remains in line for QB23 value on our board.

Range (floor–ceiling)

Stroud's floor is set by his consistent snap share of around 90%, while his ceiling is driven by his ability to contribute as a rusher, though this does not elevate him beyond QB23 value.

Intel may be outdated · updated 6 days ago

Current statusHOU

Our read vs. the market

Beta

No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

Contract Situation
Coverage frames 2026 as a make-or-break year for Stroud with a major extension decision riding on his play, adding external pressure after an uneven close to 2025.
Passing Efficiency
Stroud managed just 5.6 and 8.0 fantasy points in Houston's Wild Card win and Divisional-round loss, a sharp efficiency drop after posting 17.3 and 13.8 points to close the regular season.

Opportunity Flags

Offensive Context
Houston added David Montgomery at running back and continues to build out the receiver room around Nico Collins with Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, and Kayshon Boutte, giving Stroud more supporting talent than he had for most of his uneven 2025 stretch.
Depth Chart Stability
No same-position draft capital was spent and the only competition is Davis Mills and Graham Mertz, so Stroud's every-down role is unquestioned heading into 2026 regardless of early-season results.

Format Comparison

C.J. Stroud — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR SFBest	4,189	—
PPR 1QB	2,413	-1,776