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Bryce Young headshot

Bryce Young

QB · #24

CAR · QB · Age 25

Redraft rank
QB26
•QB26 · Flex play
Tier
T3
Overall
#60
ADP
QB24
Consensus
Some split

Bryce Young's 24% decline in rushing share from his rookie year to 2025 signals a thinning floor for the Panthers' QB, now entering Year 4 with a clear starter role but limited upside.

Role & trajectory
Young's carry share dropped from 16% as a rookie to 11.9% in 2025, reducing his dual-threat appeal and floor stability.
Projected outlook
Entering Year 4 with an uncontested starter role and improved supporting cast, Young profiles as a streaming-level QB2 with upside if he can stabilize efficiency late into the season.
Risk & schedule
The Panthers' decision to retain Dave Canales but shift play-calling duties to Brad Idzik introduces scheme uncertainty that could extend Young's inconsistency window.
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB26
vs
Market ADP
QB24
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Source agreement
±5 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Case against
−
ADP value
QB24 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-24 quarterbacks most similar to Bryce Young's 2025 season, 4 finished QB1, 3 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

39%30%
  • QB139%(4)
  • QB230%(3)
  • QB310%(1)
  • QB4+10%(1)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range15.8 median
4.1p25–p75 14.1–19.324.2
10 most similar players
Jared Goff99%
2019·QB16 · 15.5 PPG
Sam Darnold96%
2022·QB35 · 14.4 PPG
Zach Wilson94%
2024·Missed the season
Joe Burrow94%
2021·QB6 · 19.0 PPG
Jameis Winston93%
2018·QB21 · 17.8 PPG
Kyle Allen92%
2020·QB44 · 11.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit

    Dave Canales was fired after 2024 season, creating uncertainty in offensive scheme and play-calling. New coaching staff could significantly impact Young's development trajectory and on-field performance.

  • Inconsistency Volatility

    Young's weekly performance swings dramatically—PFF grades ranged from 34.3 to 90.4 post-Week 9, with PFF ranking him 26th among QBs in overall grade (70.5). This inconsistency remains the defining concern for dynasty investors.

  • Job Security Pressure

    Despite picking up the fifth-year option, GM Dan Morgan explicitly stated interest in bringing QB competition. Young is viewed as 'firmly on the hot seat' with 2026 being a pivotal prove-it year after the Panthers finished with a losing record despite playoff berth.

  • Performance Inconsistency

    Young ranked 22nd in QBR (47.7) despite late-season improvement, with weekly volatility remaining his defining concern. His completion percentage (63.6%) and 11 interceptions demonstrate he still struggles with consistency even as a fourth-year player entering a prove-it season.

  • Production Ceiling

    Even in his career-best 2025 (3,011 yds, 23 TD, 87.8 rating, QB16 at 14.1 PPG), Young profiles as a low-end QB2 in fantasy with limited rushing equity (carry share trending down 14%). His ceiling in superflex remains capped without a leap in volume or efficiency.

  • Contract Situation

    Carolina exercised the $25.9M fifth-year option (through 2027) but declined a long-term extension this offseason, making 2026 a make-or-break evaluation year against a brutal first-place schedule (PHI, SEA, GB, BAL). A poor season reopens the long-term QB question.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Elite Wr1 Addition

    Tetairoa McMillan won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and provides Young with a legitimate WR1 for the first time in his career. Young also has emerging Jalen Coker and solid RB depth with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard.

  • Clutch Gene Demonstrated

    Young has 12 career game-winning drives since 2023, the most in the NFL during that span, with six coming in 2025. His late-game magic and franchise-record 448-yard performance vs Atlanta demonstrate ceiling potential.

  • Elite Weapon

    Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year with 70 catches for 1,014 yards and 7 TDs. Entering Year 2 of their partnership, the McMillan-Young connection should deepen into one of the most valuable QB-WR pairings for dynasty managers to hold together.

  • Offensive Line Upgrade

    The Panthers drafted Monroe Freeling (R1, OT, Georgia) and added multiple FA linemen — the most significant structural investment in Young's protection since he entered the league. Cleaner pockets historically unlock Young's full accuracy profile.

  • Elite WR Pairing

    Tetairoa McMillan gives Young a true WR1 for the first time in his career. Year 2 of the Young-McMillan connection, with a full offseason together, is the single most important upside catalyst in 2026.

  • Age Trajectory

    Young is 24 and just completed a genuine breakout year (3,011 yards, 23 TDs, NFC South title). Year 4 for a QB with this trajectory historically produces further efficiency gains; the 2025 season proved the talent ceiling is real.

Format Comparison

Bryce Young — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest2,594—
PPR 1QB1,749-845