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Brock Purdy headshot

Brock Purdy

QB · #13

SF · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank
QB11
•QB11 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#18
ADP
QB13
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP+2 slots of value
Our rank
QB11
vs
Market ADP
QB13
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB11 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
ADP value
QB13 ADP · +2 slots
Minor
+
Source agreement
±3 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-26 quarterbacks most similar to Brock Purdy's 2025 season, 3 finished QB1, 3 finished QB3, 2 finished QB4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%30%20%20%
  • QB130%(3)
  • QB330%(3)
  • QB4+20%(2)
  • Missed season20%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range12.9 median
0.0p25–p75 7.2–18.126.2
10 most similar players
Baker Mayfield96%
2022·QB30 · 10.1 PPG
Derek Carr95%
2018·Missed the season
Joe Burrow94%
2024·QB6 · 21.9 PPG
Deshaun Watson93%
2023·QB37 · 14.5 PPG
Dak Prescott93%
2020·QB31 · 27.1 PPG
Tyler Huntley92%
2025·QB46 · 8.0 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Purdy enters 2026 as San Francisco's unquestioned QB1 at age 26, healthy after toe injuries held him to 11 games and a QB22 PPR finish in 2025 — a finish that badly undersells his 18.1 PPG and elite per-play efficiency (90.0 PFF grade, 4th among qualified quarterbacks). The front office rebuilt his pass-catching group around him, adding Mike Evans and second-round rookie De'Zhaun Stribling alongside Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle, while spending no draft capital at quarterback. The key catalysts are a full healthy season with the deepest weapons group of his career and the QB10/MVP-candidate industry buzz that would reset his market a tier higher; the key concerns are two straight injury-marred years and a 30-plus veteran core whose decline could erode his offensive context within a couple of seasons. His playoff run ended quietly in the divisional round at Seattle (5.3 points), which keeps his summer acquisition cost suppressed relative to his talent. Recommendation: BUY this offseason, especially in superflex, before a healthy 2026 campaign resets his price — he profiles as a stable multi-year QB1 investment with residual top-5 upside.

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Injury Concerns

    Purdy played through a turf-toe-like injury and a Week 18 shoulder stinger late in 2025, on top of a 2024 season that cost him a game to a right elbow injury — a two-year pattern worth monitoring even though he's fully healthy entering 2026.

  • Contract Pressure

    National coverage is framing 2026 as a defining, 'prove-it' season for Purdy to justify his mega-extension and quiet lingering system-QB skepticism despite his weapons upgrade.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Offensive Context

    Purdy inherits the deepest weapons room of his career — Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall, plus rookie R2 WR De'Zhaun Stribling — with zero same-position draft capital spent against him.

  • Job Security

    Backup competition (Mac Jones, Kurtis Rourke) is non-threatening and SF's 2026 draft capital went to a WR and RB rather than a QB, leaving Purdy's starting job completely uncontested.

  • National Recognition

    NFL.com tabbed Purdy a dark-horse MVP candidate for 2026 and NFL Network slotted him at No. 85 on its Top 100 list, reflecting rising external valuation after a five-touchdown, 36.9-point Week 17 outburst and a playoff berth.

Format Comparison

Brock Purdy — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest5,292—
PPR 1QB3,061-2,231