Opportunity Flags
1- Youth Upside
Young TE (23) — still in value appreciation phase
Brock Bowers
TE · #1LV · TE · Age 23
Redraft rank
TE2
TE2 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#54
ADP
TE2
Consensus
Some split
Brock Bowers enters the 2026 season with a 23% target share, confirming his status as Las Vegas's primary receiving threat.
Role & trajectory
Bowers projects to maintain his role as the clear No. 1 tight end for the Raiders, with a snap share of 85.9% and a target share that rose late in 2025.
Projected outlook
With improved quarterback play from rookie Fernando Mendoza and no wide receiver competition threatening his standing, Bowers is on track to return to overall TE1 form after a knee injury-shortened season.
Risk & schedule
A lingering left-knee PCL issue remains the primary risk; any flare-up could limit his availability and impact efficiency. Additionally, rookie quarterback play introduces weekly volatility in pass attempts.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
TE2
Market ADP
TE2
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorMinorMinor
Case for
Projection rank
TE2 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±8 rank σ · 2 sources
Age / role
age 23 TE
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 tight ends most similar to Brock Bowers, 4 finished TE1, 1 finished TE2, 4 finished TE3, 1 finished TE4+.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast.
38%38%
- TE138%(4)
- TE212%(1)
- TE338%(4)
- TE4+11%(1)
Year-two PPG range7.8 median
3.6p25–p75 4.5–11.313.1
10 most similar players
Cole Kmet77%
2023TE9 · 12.1 PPG
Pat Freiermuth75%
2023TE27 · 7.5 PPG
Sam LaPorta70%
2024TE8 · 11.3 PPG
Kyle Pitts69%
2023TE16 · 8.1 PPG
Michael Mayer65%
2024TE42 · 3.3 PPG
Tommy Tremble60%
2023TE34 · 4.7 PPG
+4 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionStrong target shareAge 23 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 2 pts below market
Our view
98
Market
100
High draft pedigreeProducing above valueLong career runway
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Brock Bowers — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 7,003 | — |
| PPR SF | 6,752 | -251 |