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Brevin Jordan headshot

Brevin Jordan

TE · #83

HOU · TE · Age 26

Redraft rank
TE87
◆TE87 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#585
ADP
TE71
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-16 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE87
vs
Market ADP
TE71
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE87 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
TE71 ADP · -16 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-21 tight ends most similar to Brevin Jordan's 2021 season, 1 finished TE2, 2 finished TE3, 6 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%61%
  • TE27%(1)
  • TE320%(2)
  • TE4+61%(6)
  • Missed season12%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range4.2 median
0.4p25–p75 2.0–5.66.2
10 most similar players
Dalton Schultz90%
2019·Missed the season
Foster Moreau85%
2020·TE60 · 4.7 PPG
Kaden Smith84%
2020·TE65 · 2.2 PPG
Jonnu Smith84%
2018·TE34 · 5.8 PPG
Ian Thomas84%
2019·TE51 · 4.0 PPG
Durham Smythe79%
2019·TE80 · 1.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Brevin Jordan's dynasty value has collapsed to a deep-league afterthought and the picture is worse than the prior -0.50 read. Houston re-signed TE1 Dalton Schultz to a 1yr/$12.6M extension, added Foster Moreau in free agency, and spent the 59th overall pick (R2) on Marlin Klein as the long-term answer — leaving Jordan, who is rehabbing his SECOND ACL surgery, fighting just to make the 53-man roster behind four other tight ends. The lone glimmers (Stroud's elite offense, his age-25 profile) are irrelevant when he has neither roster security nor a path to targets, and a third knee injury would end his career arc. This is a clear SELL/DROP: in any league shallower than deep TE-premium formats he is a cut candidate, and even there he's only a zero-cost lottery ticket on a Schultz injury. Hold only if you can roster him for free; do not spend FAAB or a roster spot of value to acquire.

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns3

    Jordan has suffered back-to-back catastrophic lower-body injuries: a torn ACL in Week 2 of 2024 and a torn patellar tendon in August 2025 training camp, costing him all of the 2025 season. Two consecutive major knee injuries at 25 raises serious durability concerns and may have permanently altered his explosiveness and route-running ceiling.

  • Depth Chart Block

    Dalton Schultz signed a $12.6M extension in March 2026 locking him as TE1 through 2027 — not just 2026 as prior analysis assumed. Schultz led the Texans in targets in 2025 (82 catches, 777 yards), closing Jordan's path to the featured role for at minimum two full seasons.

  • Target Competition

    Houston now carries five TEs: Schultz (TE1 locked), Stover (TE2, recovering from divisional-round injury), Klein (R2 pick, 2026 draft), Jordan, and Harrison Bryant. Jordan enters camp as TE4 at best, leaving almost no viable path to fantasy-relevant volume.

  • Roster Security

    Coming off his second ACL surgery, Jordan is no longer a lock for the 53-man roster behind Schultz, Foster Moreau, Marlin Klein, Cade Stover, and Luke Lachey. Beat writers explicitly flag him as a cut risk.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit2

    New OC Nick Caley arrives from the Rams where he served as tight ends coach, a system historically friendly to multi-TE usage. If Caley implements a 12/22 personnel heavy scheme, Jordan's flex athleticism could see more two-TE sets.

  • Buy-Low Window

    Jordan's dynasty value is deeply distressed relative to his pre-injury ceiling. Owners in deep leagues can acquire him near the cost of a low-end draft pick, limiting downside on what is still a 25-year-old athletic TE in a high-ceiling offense.

  • Trade Candidate

    On a low-cost 1-year deal with a stacked depth chart, Jordan is a realistic trade chip to a TE-needy team before or during the 2026 season — a change of scenery to a starting role would sharply unlock dynasty value.

  • Contingent Upside

    If Schultz misses time, the muddled TE room could open snaps, though Moreau and Klein sit ahead of Jordan for that next-man-up role.

  • Age & Development

    At 25, Jordan is squarely in the developmental window for tight ends, who typically peak between ages 26-29. If he returns to full health, he still has 4-5 years of potential prime production ahead of him.

Format Comparison

Brevin Jordan — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest616—
PPR SF511-105