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Brenton Strange headshot

Brenton Strange

TE · #16

JAX · TE · Age 25

Redraft rank
TE17
•TE17 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#150
ADP
TE18
Consensus
Some split
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
TE17
vs
Market ADP
TE18
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE17 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±6 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 tight ends most similar to Brenton Strange's 2025 season, 2 finished TE1, 3 finished TE2, 2 finished TE3, 3 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%29%21%30%
  • TE120%(2)
  • TE229%(3)
  • TE321%(2)
  • TE4+30%(3)
Next-season PPG range9.1 median
2.3p25–p75 4.7–10.613.5
10 most similar players
Cole Kmet92%
2025·TE32 · 5.0 PPG
Tyler Kroft87%
2018·TE89 · 1.5 PPG
Dawson Knox84%
2022·TE9 · 9.3 PPG
Sam LaPorta81%
2025·TE29 · 11.9 PPG
Austin Hooper80%
2020·TE18 · 9.0 PPG
T.J. Hockenson78%
2023·TE5 · 14.6 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Brenton Strange enters 2026 as Jacksonville's unquestioned TE1 coming off a PPR #23 finish (13 GP, 9.3 PPG) with snap share up to 88%, and the offseason narrative is more bullish than the draft block suggests. The Jaguars' R2 (Boerkircher #56) and R5 (Koziol) TE additions are not threats to his job — Boerkircher is a run-blocking specialist the staff drafted to absorb in-line work and free Strange to run more routes, exactly what HC Liam Coen has signaled. The two real catalysts are an extension GM Gladstone calls 'within striking distance' and an expanded receiving role under Coen; the chief concern is target competition from a deep WR room (Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Meyers, Washington) plus the possibility multi-TE sets cannibalize red-zone looks, with his target share already dipping to 17%. At 25 with a long positional runway and Trevor Lawrence throwing, his floor is stable. Recommendation: HOLD with a modest BUY lean as a buy-low TE2 with TE1 upside — acquire before an extension or route-role bump prices in over the next season.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionAverage target shareAge 25 · ascending
Our view vs Market↑ 6 pts above market
Our view
80
Market
74
Long career runwayProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume2

    Target share trending down to 17% despite an 88% snap rate, a split that suggests Strange is increasingly deployed as a blocker and inline presence rather than a primary receiving option. With Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Parker Washington all demanding targets, the ceiling on Strange's volume is real.

  • Target Ceiling

    Strange maxed out at 7 targets in a game during 2025, averaging just 45 yards per game in spread-offense with competition from Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, and Parker Washington limiting his upside.

  • Contract Situation

    Strange is in his final year on a $1.48M base rookie deal with only preliminary extension talks underway. If negotiations stall mid-season, distraction risk and free-agency speculation could cloud his dynasty outlook.

  • Target Competition

    Jacksonville's WR room is one of the most talent-dense in the NFL heading into 2026 — BTJ, Travis Hunter, and Parker Washington all command significant target share from Trevor Lawrence. TE usage tends to compress on pass-heavy teams with elite WR depth, limiting Strange's weekly floor.

  • Scheme Fit

    GM James Gladstone explicitly cited a shift toward 'heavier tight end groupings' as the rationale for drafting Boerkircher and Koziol — Strange's rising snap share (88%) alongside falling target share (17%) suggests blocking deployment is growing, which boosts real-football value but limits fantasy production.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Contract Situation2

    The Jaguars initiated preliminary extension talks with Strange in April 2026 alongside Travon Walker and Parker Washington — the team is treating him as a cornerstone piece, not a rotational asset. An extension would lock in his primary TE role and dynasty value through at least 2028.

  • Scheme Fit

    New HC Liam Coen's 2025 scheme clearly valued Strange, resulting in career highs (46 rec, 540 yards, 3 TDs in 12 games). Coen has famously improved tight end production in previous roles.

  • Clear Starter

    Strange is unequivocally the TE1 in Jacksonville after Evan Engram's release in March 2025, with only Hunter Long behind him on the depth chart. He started 12 games in 2025 and established himself as the clear lead tight end.

  • Age Trajectory

    At 25, Strange is entering the apex production window for tight ends (typically 26–30). He has 3–5 years of peak production ahead, making him a genuine long-hold asset rather than a rental in dynasty formats.

  • Role Expansion

    HC Liam Coen and the staff explicitly want Strange running routes MORE often; the rookie TE additions (Boerkircher graded as a top SEC run-blocker) are designed to absorb blocking snaps and free Strange as a receiver.

Format Comparison

Brenton Strange — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,949—
PPR SF1,752-197