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Breece Hall headshot

Breece Hall

RB · #10

NYJ · RB · Age 25

Redraft rank
RB14
•RB14 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#47
ADP
RB14
Consensus
Coin flip

Breece Hall's recent promotion to RB1 solidifies his role, but efficiency metrics suggest a cautious approach.

Role & trajectory
Hall has seen his snap share rise to 64.4%, indicating he is the primary ball carrier for the Jets, though his target share is falling.
Rest-of-season outlook
Despite a reduced air yard share and low WOPR, Hall's carry share of 55% positions him as a reliable RB2 with room to improve in receiving.
Risk & schedule
Hall faces the risk of sustaining injuries due to his high snap count; however, his recent promotion suggests he is indispensable to the Jets' offense.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB14
vs
Market ADP
RB14
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
RB14 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
Source agreement
±19 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-24 backs most similar to Breece Hall's 2025 season, 6 finished RB1, 2 finished RB2, 1 finished RB3, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

60%20%
  • RB160%(6)
  • RB220%(2)
  • RB310%(1)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range14.4 median
6.3p25–p75 12.7–21.622.9
10 most similar players
D'Andre Swift90%
2024·RB19 · 12.6 PPG
Ezekiel Elliott90%
2020·RB11 · 14.9 PPG
Jahmyr Gibbs89%
2025·RB3 · 21.6 PPG
Leonard Fournette88%
2020·RB12 · 13.7 PPG
Bijan Robinson87%
2025·RB2 · 21.8 PPG
Le'Veon Bell86%
2018·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 6 pts above market
Our view
96
Market
90
Elite carry shareProducing above valueLong career runway

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Usage & Volume

    Despite a locked-in RB1 role, snap share and carry share both trended down over the final four weeks of 2025 (76% to 48% snaps) while his receiving work stayed low-value (0.3 aDOT, 0.21 WOPR), capping his weekly ceiling versus true bell-cow backs.

  • Age & Workload Concerns

    At 25 with 243 carries in 2025 alone plus a late-season knee injury that ended his year, Hall is entering the stretch of the RB aging curve where wear-and-tear and per-touch efficiency risk start to accumulate.

  • Injury Concerns

    Hall's 2025 season ended early after a hard fall on his knee against New England; he's since returned fully healthy and signed a market-rate extension, but his history (including a prior rookie-year ACL tear) keeps a baseline injury risk in play.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Contract Situation

    Hall signed a three-year, $45.75M extension (with $29M guaranteed over the first two years) in May 2026, eliminating the free-agency uncertainty that had capped his offseason dynasty price and confirming the Jets view him as their long-term lead back.

  • Scheme Fit

    New OC Frank Reich's arrival, paired with Hall's own comments that 2026 'could be my best season,' raises the possibility of an expanded receiving role after a career-modest aDOT and WOPR in 2025.

  • Draft Capital

    New York's 2026 draft capital went to TE Kenyon Sadiq, WR Omar Cooper Jr., and QB Cade Klubnik rather than the RB room, leaving Hall's touch share unthreatened by rookie competition entering the season.

Format Comparison

Breece Hall — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest5,521—
PPR SF4,650-871