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Bo Nix headshot

Bo Nix

QB · #12

DEN · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank
QB8
▲QB8 · Every-week starter+7 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T1
Overall
#15
ADP
QB15
Consensus
Tight

Bo Nix enters the 2026 season as Denver's unquestioned QB1 off a career-best QB6 PPR finish, with an ankle injury that could limit his rushing upside but does not threaten his passing role.

Role & trajectory
Nix is the clear starter for Denver, with no depth-chart threat from Stidham or Ehlinger. His carry share trended up through 2025 to 19.5%, but ankle rehab could cap his rushing volume and scoring floor.
Projected outlook
Denver's acquisition of Jaylen Waddle, along with Sutton and Franklin, forms the best receiving corps of Nix's career, setting up a passing-efficiency leap. He faces modest scheme-continuity uncertainty but remains a top-tier superflex asset at 26 years old.
Risk & schedule
Nix fractured his right ankle on a designed run in the Divisional Round, requiring two surgeries and listing him as Questionable. The injury occurred on exactly the kind of play that fuels his rushing value, raising concerns about his workload.
Value vs ADP+7 slots of value
Our rank
QB8
vs
Market ADP
QB15
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB8 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
ADP value
QB15 ADP · +7 slots
Notable
+
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 quarterbacks most similar to Bo Nix, 2 finished QB1, 4 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+, 1 was off fantasy rosters.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Off rosters → QB1 — directional, not a forecast.

16%37%33%
  • QB116%(2)
  • QB237%(4)
  • QB333%(2)
  • QB4+5%(1)
  • Off rosters9%(1)
Year-two PPG range10.1 median
2.3p25–p75 9.3–15.418.2
10 most similar players
Joe Burrow91%
2023·QB21 · 14.7 PPG
Mac Jones84%
2023·QB27 · 9.7 PPG
Kenny Pickett79%
2023·QB26 · 9.2 PPG
Malik Willis46%
2023·Off fantasy rosters
Tua Tagovailoa44%
2023·QB11 · 15.8 PPG
Justin Fields39%
2023·QB16 · 17.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (7 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Injury History

    Nix fractured his right ankle in the AFC Divisional Round and underwent a follow-up procedure for bone spurs in April; he is reportedly not a PUP candidate and expects to be full-go for training camp, but a surgically repaired ankle on a QB whose rushing volume is trending up (carry share climbed to 55% late in the year) carries residual setback risk into camp/preseason.

  • TD Regression

    Nix scored 5 rushing TDs against a 2.4-expected baseline (+2.6), a finishing-luck signal that could normalize down in 2026 and dent his scoring floor even if usage stays flat.

  • Play-Caller Handoff

    Davis Webb takes over primary play-calling from Sean Payton for the first time in 2026; Webb has coached Nix for two seasons as QB coach, so the continuity risk is modest, but any first-year play-caller carries some early-season installation variance.

Opportunity Flags

4
  • Weapon Upgrade

    The addition of Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Evan Engram gives Nix the deepest, most talented receiving corps of his career, materially raising his 2026 passing-offense ceiling.

  • Scheme Fit

    Webb's Air Raid background (Texas Tech/Cal) mirrors concepts Nix ran at Oregon, and reporting frames the Waddle/Webb pairing as a natural fit for Nix's strengths as he assumes full play-calling control in 2026.

  • Rushing Floor

    Nix logged 356 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs on an up-trending carry share (100% snap share, every-down role) in 2025, giving him a stable dual-threat fantasy floor that most pocket passers lack.

  • Elite Early Path

    Nix is the only QB in NFL history to throw for + yards and 50+ total TDs while winning 20+ games in his first two seasons, and his top statistical comp (Joe Burrow, 91.3% match) posted a Year-3 breakout — supporting a continued-ascension case.

Format Comparison

Bo Nix — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest5,404—
PPR 1QB3,042-2,362