Risk Flags
3- Injury History
Nix fractured his right ankle in the AFC Divisional Round and underwent a follow-up procedure for bone spurs in April; he is reportedly not a PUP candidate and expects to be full-go for training camp, but a surgically repaired ankle on a QB whose rushing volume is trending up (carry share climbed to 55% late in the year) carries residual setback risk into camp/preseason.
- TD Regression
Nix scored 5 rushing TDs against a 2.4-expected baseline (+2.6), a finishing-luck signal that could normalize down in 2026 and dent his scoring floor even if usage stays flat.
- Play-Caller Handoff
Davis Webb takes over primary play-calling from Sean Payton for the first time in 2026; Webb has coached Nix for two seasons as QB coach, so the continuity risk is modest, but any first-year play-caller carries some early-season installation variance.