Bijan Robinson
RB · #1ATL · RB · Age 24
Redraft rank
RB1
RB1 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#2
ADP
RB2
Consensus
Tight
Bijan Robinson's league-leading 2,298 scrimmage yards in 2025 on a 62% carry share and 78% snap rate solidify his status as the RB1 entering the upcoming season.
Role & trajectory
Robinson's role is set to expand with Tyler Allgeier's departure, leaving him as the clear lead back in a run-heavy scheme under Kevin Stefanski, who historically favors one elite rusher.
Projected outlook
With Atlanta exercising his fifth-year option and prioritizing an extension, Robinson is projected to maintain or increase his workload, aiming for another rushing title with the current backfield composition.
Risk & schedule
The risk lies in positional aging pressures as he approaches peak efficiency levels from a high-touch 2025 season, but this is mitigated by Atlanta's commitment to his long-term role.
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
RB1
Market ADP
RB2
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotableMinor
Case for
Projection rank
RB1 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Age / role
age 24 RB
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameLow confidence
Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
39%20%20%21%
- RB139%(4)
- RB220%(2)
- RB4+20%(2)
- Missed season21%(2)
“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.
Next-season PPG range13.9 median
0.0p25–p75 6.7–19.421.4
10 most similar players
Christian McCaffrey90%
2020Missed the season
Ezekiel Elliott88%
2019RB5 · 19.5 PPG
Le'Veon Bell85%
2018Missed the season
Breece Hall84%
2025RB23 · 13.0 PPG
Leonard Fournette84%
2018RB40 · 15.1 PPG
Jahmyr Gibbs82%
2025RB3 · 21.6 PPG
+4 more analogs
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 24 · ascending
Our view vs MarketIn line with market
Our view
100
Market
100
High draft pedigreeProducing above valueElite carry share
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Format Comparison
Bijan Robinson — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 10,000 | — |
| PPR SF | 9,435 | -565 |