Opportunity Flags
1- Youth Upside
Young RB (22) — peak value years ahead
Ashton Jeanty
RB · #3LV · RB · Age 22
Redraft rank
RB6
RB6 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#29
ADP
RB6
Consensus
Tight
Ashton Jeanty enters his sophomore season with an 86.6% carry share from his rookie year, cementing him as the Raiders' workhorse back despite competition risks.
Role & trajectory
Jeanty's role is solidified as a workhorse RB after handling 86.6% of carries in his rookie season and finishing with a 97% snap share, though rookie Mike Washington Jr. could pose a minor threat to touch-share.
Projected outlook
With an upgraded QB room and new coach Klint Kubiak planning for a McCaffrey-like workload, Jeanty's receiving role is expected to grow from his 15.6% target share last season.
Risk & schedule
The rookie quarterback transition could temporarily suppress scoring efficiency and goal-line volume, while the high snap rate of 77.9% in Year 2 accelerates wear-and-tear concerns for a young RB.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB6
Market ADP
RB6
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotableMinor
Case for
Projection rank
RB6 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±4 rank σ · 2 sources
Age / role
age 22 RB
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 age-22 backs most similar to Ashton Jeanty's 2025 season, 4 finished RB1, 4 finished RB2, 1 finished RB3, 1 finished RB4+.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
40%40%
- RB140%(4)
- RB240%(4)
- RB310%(1)
- RB4+10%(1)
Next-season PPG range14.4 median
11.8p25–p75 13.3–17.321.1
10 most similar players
Najee Harris80%
2022RB16 · 13.1 PPG
Jonathan Taylor80%
2021RB1 · 21.9 PPG
Nick Chubb79%
2020RB9 · 17.2 PPG
Travis Etienne78%
2023RB5 · 16.6 PPG
Javonte Williams78%
2022RB83 · 10.5 PPG
Joe Mixon76%
2019RB15 · 14.1 PPG
+4 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Ashton Jeanty — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 8,055 | — |
| PPR SF | 7,149 | -906 |