Risk Flags
1- Offensive Context
New York's negative team PROE (-11%) signals a run-leaning approach that shrinks the passing-game pie for any receiver outside the top one or two options, compounding Smith's volume problem.
Arian Smith
WR · #187NYJ · WR · Age 24
SIT
Arian Smith's recent performance, averaging just 0.4 PPR points over his last four games, signals a lack of consistent production.
Role & volume
Smith has seen minimal usage in the past four games, with an average snap share of only 18.2% and a target share of just 5.4%, indicating limited involvement in the offense.
Projected role
Given his current standing as WR163 on our value board, Smith is not expected to see significant improvement or increased volume that would elevate him into a reliable fantasy option.
Range (floor–ceiling)
With such low usage and recent performance, Smith's ceiling remains very limited; his floor is essentially zero points in most weeks, making him a risky addition to any lineup.
Intel may be outdated · updated 45 days ago
Current statusNYJ
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (2 flags)
Opportunity Flags
1- Vertical Role Fit
When targeted, Smith is used almost exclusively downfield (13.5 aDOT, 44% deep-target rate), giving him spike-week upside if an injury to a receiver ahead of him ever forces expanded vertical-package snaps.
Format Comparison
Arian Smith — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 1,215 | — |
| PPR SF | 960 | -255 |