Fantasy Heartbeat
GuillotineRankingsTrade Calculator
Connect league

© 2026 Fantasy Heartbeat

  • Blog
  • Tools
  • Track Record
  • Pricing
  • Help
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Disclaimers
  • Contact

Fantasy Heartbeat is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the National Football League (NFL), any NFL team, the NFL Players Association, ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, or FleaFlicker. NFL team and player names are used for identification purposes only. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

← Back to Player Explorer
Alvin Kamara headshot

Alvin Kamara

RB · #63

NO · RB · Age 31

Redraft rank
RB51
•RB51 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#235
ADP
RB49
Consensus
Coin flip

Alvin Kamara's role on the Saints is diminished, with Travis Etienne Jr. taking over as the clear RB1, leaving Kamara in a complementary pass-catching role.

Role & trajectory
Kamara transitions to a receiving-focused role with limited early-down carries, facing competition from Devin Neal and Kendre Miller for remaining touches.
Projected outlook
In PPR formats, Kamara's target share could stabilize or slightly increase, but his overall volume is capped by Etienne's presence and the Saints' offensive struggles.
Risk & schedule
Kamara's advanced age (31) and injury history raise durability concerns; a potential trade or release post-June 1 could further reduce his role.
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
RB51
vs
Market ADP
RB49
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB51 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
RB49 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
−
Source agreement
±83 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
−
Age / role
age 31 RB
Notable
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 7 age-30 backs most similar to Alvin Kamara's 2025 season, 1 finished RB1, 1 finished RB2, 3 finished RB4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 7 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

14%44%28%
  • RB114%(1)
  • RB213%(1)
  • RB4+44%(3)
  • Missed season28%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
72%hang on~9.9 PPG·28%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.2–14.022.4
7 most similar players
David Johnson62%
2022·RB110 · 2.3 PPG
Mike Davis56%
2022·RB116 · 0.8 PPG
Christian McCaffrey56%
2025·RB1 · 24.1 PPG
Devonta Freeman55%
2022·Missed the season
Joe Mixon55%
2025·Missed the season
Aaron Jones54%
2025·RB42 · 9.9 PPG

+1 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionSolid carry shareAge 30 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 24 pts above market
Our view
54
Market
30
TD regression riskAge-curve riskProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Contract Situation2

    The Saints restructured Kamara's deal in March, leaving only $3M of his $11.5M base guaranteed — a clear release signal. GM Mickey Loomis confirmed the 2026 draft outcome would influence roster decisions on both Kamara and Cam Jordan; no trade materialized despite reported availability.

  • Production Collapse

    Kamara was the overall RB46 in full-PPR leagues during the 2025 season, the first time he ever finished lower than RB16, with reduced volume and effectiveness, averaging fewer than 15 touches per game, finishing with career-low 3.6 yards per carry, and only scoring one touchdown.

  • Injury Concerns

    Kamara suffered an MCL sprain in Week 12 (November 2025) and never returned, missing the final six games of the season. Recovery timeline extended far beyond initial expectations, and he hasn't played a full 17-game season since his 2017 rookie year.

  • Depth Chart

    The Saints signed Travis Etienne Jr. to a 4-year, $52M deal this offseason, immediately installing him as the unquestioned RB1. Kamara goes from eight-year franchise centerpiece to complementary back at best, with no realistic path back to a featured role.

  • Role Demotion

    Travis Etienne Jr. signed a 4-year, $52M deal with New Orleans in 2026, installing him as the unambiguous RB1 and three-down starter. Kamara's snap share was already trending down 14% and carry share down 11% before this signing; W12 (14% snaps, 3.5 pts) previews what his floor looks like.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Sell High Window

    Dynasty analysts recommend attempting to sell Kamara for a second-round and third-round rookie pick now, as you won't likely be able to sell him for a single second-round pick in the offseason.

  • Receiving Track Record

    Despite 2025 struggles, Kamara has never finished lower than fifth among RBs in targets or ninth in catches/receiving yards in any season. His pass-catching role remains theoretically valuable in PPR formats if health returns.

  • Diminished Competition Health

    Both Kendre Miller (ACL) and Devin Neal (hamstring) ended 2025 on IR. If Kamara returns healthy and they're still recovering, he could enter 2026 training camp as the nominal starter with reduced immediate competition.

  • Target Volume

    Kamara's target share was trending upward (+5%) as carries dried up, suggesting the Saints were already transitioning him toward a pass-catching role. In a PPR format with Tyler Shough under center, a 3-5 target/game role is his realistic remaining floor if he stays.

  • Opportunity Knocks

    Etienne has a history of injuries including a Lisfranc fracture that cost him his entire rookie season. If he misses significant time, Kamara could see a temporary volume spike — though his age and declining efficiency severely cap the upside of such a scenario.

  • Injury Upside

    If Etienne misses time, Kamara's receiving skills and backfield familiarity with Shough give him a plausible bridge-starter upside, though his reduced snap ceiling and competition from Neal would limit any value recovery to short-term redraft relevance.

Format Comparison

Alvin Kamara — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,266—
PPR SF1,054-212