Alexander Mattison

RB · #132

MIA · RB · Age 28

Dynasty value

695

Hold Stable

Tier

T13

Pos rank

RB132

Consensus

Strong

What’s driving the valueRange 348–834

Case for

Situation

Multiple tailwinds

Notable

Case against

Age / window

age 28 RB

Major

Pedigree / rank

RB132 · Tier 13

Minor

Neutral: Production trend

Analysis

Mattison returned to Miami's active roster for 2026 after the 2025 neck fusion surgery wiped out his prior season, but he now sits clearly behind De'Von Achane in a backfield that also features four younger complementary backs. His role profiles as a passing-down and short-yardage complement, with a real target share that gives him weekly floor even without lead-back volume, and his touchdown output has actually lagged his scoring opportunities, a mild positive-regression signal. This is a hold-only, deep-bench dynasty asset with no standalone startup appeal; sell into any redraft-motivated offer, and only hold in dynasty as a cheap Achane injury handcuff over the next several weeks.

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 backs most similar to Alexander Mattison's 2024 season, 1 finished RB1, 6 finished RB2, 2 finished RB3, 1 finished RB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

62%20%

RB19%(1)
RB262%(6)
RB320%(2)
RB4+9%(1)

Next-season PPG range12.5 median

9.2p25–p75 11.5–16.220.5

10 most similar players

Ezekiel Elliott94%

2022RB21 · 11.5 PPG

Derrick Henry82%

2021RB18 · 22.8 PPG

Jonathan Taylor81%

2024RB15 · 17.6 PPG

Rhamondre Stevenson79%

2024RB30 · 11.7 PPG

Chuba Hubbard76%

2024RB16 · 16.1 PPG

Najee Harris74%

2024RB20 · 11.9 PPG

+4 more analogs

Scenarios (4)

Steady change-of-pace role behind Achanelikely▼ -5%

Emergency starter reps if Achane misses timepossible▲ +20%

Squeezed off the roster or into inactive weekspossible▼ -40%

Retirement or fade from dynasty relevancepossible▼ -50%

Intel may be outdated · updated 46 days ago

Current statusMIA

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Injury Concerns
Mattison missed the entire 2025 season after an August 2025 preseason neck fracture required emergency spinal fusion surgery; even with a clean bill of health now, that injury class carries elevated re-injury and explosiveness concerns for a veteran back.
Backfield Competition
Miami's backfield is anchored by a high-end starter in De'Von Achane, with four younger backs (Gordon, Wright, Hunter, Edwards) also on the depth chart, leaving Mattison a clear depth/passing-down role at best.
Contract Situation
Mattison is on a one-year deal, meaning his roster spot and role need to be re-earned again in 2027 with no long-term team commitment underpinning his dynasty outlook.

Opportunity Flags

Positive TD Regression
Mattison's role produced roughly 8.2 expected touchdowns against only 5 scored, a notable negative variance that historically tends to normalize upward and could boost his fantasy output even at flat usage.
Target Volume
A steady 10% target share and dependable passing-down usage give Mattison a real weekly floor as a receiving-down complement rather than a pure early-down afterthought.

Format Comparison

Alexander Mattison — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	861	—
PPR SF	695	-166