Risk Flags
3- TD Regression Risk
Pierce scored 6 touchdowns against only 3.1 expected in 2025, a wide finishing-luck gap that historically regresses and could suppress fantasy output even if his target volume holds steady.
- Injury Concerns
A left-ankle surgery in March 2026 cost Pierce most of training camp and at least one regular-season game before he was activated off PUP and cleared the injury report, leaving a small residual re-aggravation risk.
- Usage & Volume
Snap share slid from 100% to 68% across his final four 2025 games even as target share climbed, a situational usage pattern worth monitoring for signs of a reduced every-down role.