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Alec Pierce headshot

Alec Pierce

WR · #34

IND · WR · Age 26

◆FLEX

Alec Pierce's recent injury history and the return of Keenan Allen contest his target share, making him a FLEX option.

Role & volume
Pierce has seen significant variance in his target share over the last four games, ranging from 3.8% to 21.2%, indicating inconsistent usage.
Projected role
With Keenan Allen back on the roster, Pierce's target share is likely to be contested, reducing his ceiling as a WR.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Pierce's recent injury status and inconsistent usage place him in the WR38 tier, making him a FLEX option with limited upside.
Intel may be outdated · updated 3 days ago
Current statusIND
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionStrong target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 1 pts below market
Our view
76
Market
77
TD rebound upsideLong career runwayElite target share

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • TD Regression Risk

    Pierce scored 6 touchdowns against only 3.1 expected in 2025, a wide finishing-luck gap that historically regresses and could suppress fantasy output even if his target volume holds steady.

  • Injury Concerns

    A left-ankle surgery in March 2026 cost Pierce most of training camp and at least one regular-season game before he was activated off PUP and cleared the injury report, leaving a small residual re-aggravation risk.

  • Usage & Volume

    Snap share slid from 100% to 68% across his final four 2025 games even as target share climbed, a situational usage pattern worth monitoring for signs of a reduced every-down role.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Offensive Context

    Pierce owns 40% of Indianapolis's air yards with a 19.0 aDOT, firmly established as the offense's primary vertical threat since Michael Pittman Jr.'s departure, giving him real weekly ceiling on scoring plays.

  • Contract Situation

    Pierce re-signed with the Colts in March 2026, removing free-agency uncertainty and cementing his standing as the team's primary outside receiver into the medium term.

Format Comparison

Alec Pierce — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,816—
PPR SF2,336-480