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AJ Dillon headshot

AJ Dillon

RB · #138

CAR · RB · Age 28

Redraft rank
RB140
•RB140 · Depth
Tier
T6
Overall
#496
ADP
RB75
Consensus
Some split

(insufficient first-party data)

What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB140 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-23 backs most similar to AJ Dillon's 2021 season, 3 finished RB1, 2 finished RB2, 3 finished RB3, 2 finished RB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

29%20%33%19%
  • RB129%(3)
  • RB220%(2)
  • RB333%(3)
  • RB4+19%(2)
Next-season PPG range12.7 median
5.3p25–p75 9.4–15.017.0
10 most similar players
Sony Michel91%
2019·RB31 · 9.5 PPG
Royce Freeman77%
2019·RB36 · 8.9 PPG
Leonard Fournette76%
2019·RB8 · 17.3 PPG
Kenyan Drake75%
2018·RB16 · 12.9 PPG
Darrell Henderson73%
2021·RB26 · 13.2 PPG
Derrick Henry72%
2018·RB18 · 12.6 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel updated: 4 days ago
Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Depth Chart

    Signed to compete for a reserve role behind Chuba Hubbard, Jonathon Brooks, and Trevor Etienne, leaving him fourth in line for touches. Carolina added no 2026 draft capital at RB, but the incumbent room alone caps his path to meaningful volume.

  • Injury Concerns

    A neck injury wiped out his entire 2024 season. He has played since and no 2026 health issues have been reported, but a recurrence at his age would likely be career-ending.

Opportunity Flags

1
  • Contingency Value

    Jonathon Brooks carries an extensive knee history and was still listed with a knee designation in offseason reports; attrition ahead of Dillon is the one path to a committee role. Position movers historically see floor improvement, so a defined role is plausible if the room thins.

Format Comparison

AJ Dillon — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest372—
PPR SF257-115