AJ Barner

Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders head coach after the Super Bowl, forcing Seattle to hire their third OC in three years. Kubiak's 12/13 personnel heavy scheme was essential to Barner's breakout, and any schematic shift could significantly reduce his receiving opportunities.

Despite 90% snaps, target share is stuck at a stable 11% behind JSN, Shaheed and the backfield. TE13 production was TD-driven (7 receiving TDs), making the floor volatile and ceiling capped without more volume.

Elijah Arroyo, a 2025 second-round pick with prototypical size (6'5", 250) and vertical receiving ability, returns from knee injuries as a legitimate long-term threat to Barner's target share. While Arroyo missed most of 2025 with injuries, he's healthy entering 2026 and expected to command increased work.

Barner's postseason workload has been inconsistent—zero catches in divisional round despite 64 snaps, then increased involvement in later games. Game script and Seahawks' dominant defense could limit passing volume.

An 11% target share is stable but modest for a purported #1 TE. JSN dominates the Seattle target tree, and a crowded backfield (Walker, Charbonnet) further limits routes to a ceiling that may cap Barner as a TE10-15 rather than a top-tier asset.

Incoming OC Brian Fleury was the 49ers' TE coach and specifically cited Arroyo's development as a focal point — a double-edged sword that raises the probability Arroyo earns a larger role in 2026 even as Barner holds TE1 status.

At 23 years old, Barner is entering his athletic prime with multi-year runway for development, making this an ideal window for progression and role establishment in Seattle's offense.

Barner is 'the leader for the No. 1 TE role in 2026' and finished with 58 receptions, 586 yards, and 7 TDs across 20 games (regular season + postseason). He's clearly Seattle's featured tight end entering 2026.

At 23.7 years old in his second NFL season, Barner has shown dramatic year-over-year improvement (30 rec in Year 1 → 52+ in Year 2). He's in his athletic prime with multi-year runway for further development and target-share expansion.

Barner scored 7 total TDs including crucial Super Bowl and playoff scores. He's positioned as a high-volume red-zone threat in a run-heavy Seahawks system, providing consistent touchdown upside despite variable overall volume.

Barner is the clear leader for Seattle's TE1 role in 2026 after finishing second on the team in receptions (52) and touchdowns (6) during the regular season, plus scoring the Super Bowl's first touchdown. He demonstrated dramatic year-over-year improvement and has organizational buy-in.

GM John Schneider publicly expects Sam Darnold to 'play even better' in 2026. If Darnold takes another step forward as a passer, the tight end role in Seattle could grow — TEs historically benefit disproportionately from QB accuracy improvements in schemed short-area routes.