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Aaron Jones headshot

Aaron Jones

RB · #55

MIN · RB · Age 31

Redraft rank
RB44
◆RB44 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#143
ADP
RB24
Consensus
Tight

Aaron Jones' career-low 4.2 YPC in 2025 signals a significant decline, making him a risky FLEX option heading into the 2026 season.

Role & trajectory
Jones has dealt with multiple injuries this season and played just 12 games, limiting his carry share to 33.8% — a clear indication of declining role security.
Projected outlook
With the Vikings facing a $36 million salary cap deficit in 2026, Jones' $9 million base salary makes him expendable, further jeopardizing his projected workload and touch share.
Risk & schedule
At age 31, Jones faces stiff competition from Jordan Mason, who emerged as the lead rusher when healthy in 2025 (664 yards on 159 carries), signaling a real risk of reduced touches and role.
Value vs ADP-20 slots (reach)
Our rank
RB44
vs
Market ADP
RB24
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB44 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
RB24 ADP · -20 slots
Major
−
Age / role
age 31 RB
Notable
Neutral: Source agreement
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 7 age-31 backs most similar to Aaron Jones's 2025 season, 1 finished RB1, 2 finished RB3, 1 finished RB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 7 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

24%16%48%
  • RB111%(1)
  • RB324%(2)
  • RB4+16%(1)
  • Missed season48%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
52%hang on~8.8 PPG·48%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–8.813.7
7 most similar players
Devontae Booker88%
2022·Missed the season
James Conner83%
2025·Missed the season
Raheem Mostert82%
2024·RB57 · 5.9 PPG
Austin Ekeler77%
2025·Missed the season
Kareem Hunt65%
2025·RB31 · 8.6 PPG
Latavius Murray60%
2020·RB33 · 9.1 PPG

+1 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionSolid carry shareAge 31 · window closing
Our view vs Market↑ 18 pts above market
Our view
52
Market
34
Age-curve riskProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Age Concerns

    Jones turned 31 in December and is scheduled for a $9 million base salary in 2026, placing him firmly in decline territory for the RB position. At 31.2 years old, dynasty recovery trajectory is minimal.

  • Injury Concerns

    Jones dealt with a slew of injuries this season and ultimately played just 12 games, finishing with a career-low 4.2 YPC while posting his lowest marks since his rookie year for rushing yards (548) and receiving yards (199). Multiple soft tissue injuries throughout 2025 signal declining durability.

  • Team Cap Pressure Release

    The Vikings likely will trade/release Jones before mid-March if they don't plan to keep him around for the 2026 season. The Vikings are facing a $36 million salary cap deficit in 2026, making Jones' $9M salary expendable.

  • Backfield Touch Competition

    Mason, who tallied a career-high 159 carries as well as six rushing touchdowns, and Jones shouldered the load in 2025. Due to injuries, one played without the other in six different games, and the tandem crossed the century mark together just three times, limiting Jones' ceiling.

  • Backfield Competition

    Jordan Mason (dynasty value, higher than Jones' 2289) is the presumed RB1 in Minnesota. Jones accepted a $3.5M pay cut on his restructured 1-year deal after the Vikings nearly released him, signaling leverage has decisively shifted away from him.

  • Role Security

    Jordan Mason leads the Minnesota committee and holds a higher dynasty value. Jones's role is contingent on Mason's health and coaching staff willingness to sustain PPR-friendly usage; any offensive adjustment tilts touches further toward Mason.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Trade Market2

    The late-season usage spike (W17: 65% snaps, 29% tgt share, 64% carry share) is the best sell window a dynasty manager will get. Superflex and PPR leagues may still overvalue a name-brand veteran — move him now before the 2026 draft potentially crowds the backfield further.

  • PPR Floor Upside

    He's still led the Vikings backfield most weeks in the meantime, earning 67 touches to Jordan Mason's 37 over the last five games when healthy. Kevin O'Connell's offense values pass-catching backs, preserving PPR value.

  • Potential Trade Market

    Jones said he "of course" hoped to return to Minnesota in 2025. Even if he is best suited for more of a rotational role, Jones remains one of the best options in a presumptive free agent class. Contending teams may have interest.

  • PPR Value

    Jones's target share spiked to 29% in W17 and his end-of-season usage trend (45%→65% snaps, 4%→29% tgt share W14–W17) is genuine. In J.J. McCarthy's pass-first offense with Jefferson and Addison commanding coverage, pass-catching backs carry real PPR floor value.

  • Target Volume

    Recent usage is trending UP — 29% target share and 65% snaps in W17 — confirming a genuine passing-down/receiving role that provides a respectable PPR floor in deeper leagues.

Format Comparison

Aaron Jones — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,419—
PPR SF1,221-198