Risk Flags
6- Prospect Decline
Nelson was the #1 overall recruit in the 2023 class but has transferred four times (USC → Boise State → UTEP → Syracuse), never winning a stable starting job at any stop. His trajectory is one of the sharpest falls from grace in recent recruiting history.
- Role Concerns
At Syracuse in spring 2026, Nelson is listed behind Steve Angeli and reportedly competing for the backup spot alongside walk-ons and lesser recruits — not the starting role. A YouTube video explicitly frames him as 'nothing but a depth QB' for Syracuse.
- Draft Capital
Nelson is not in the 2026 NFL Draft and is projected as an undrafted free agent prospect at best for 2027. His NFL Mock Draft Database 2027 ranking places him at #553 overall (UDFA), meaning virtually no professional pathway is projected.
- Production Concerns
The former No. 1 overall recruit has almost no college production — he redshirted at USC behind Caleb Williams, threw just 128 yards in garbage time at Boise State, and never seized a starting role at UTEP.
- On-Field Output
In six games at UTEP in 2025, Nelson completed 54.7% of passes for 1,163 yards with 8 TDs and 9 interceptions — a negative TD:INT ratio that signals poor decision-making at a non-Power-Four program.
- Career Trajectory
Four transfers in four years signals a player chasing opportunity rather than commanding it, drastically lowering the odds he develops into a draftable NFL prospect.